“Meet me at the bus stop in Fulham” is not the most romantic or enticing invitation. It’s not a patch on “Meet Me in St Louis” though that city has declined significantly since the era in which the movie was set. Nor indeed is it as beguiling as “Meet Me at Our Spot”, “Meet Me at the Surface”, “Meet me at the Table’ or “Meet Me at the Lake”. But there we are! We have an assignation at the bus stop at 4.30pm on Sunday 10th November that we must honour.
It’s not as if we haven’t had fun there previously. I have fond memories of an 89th minute Winterburn pile-driver to win 3-2 in 1997, a 1999 Kanu hat trick in the last 15 minutes to win 3-2 after trailing 2-0 and a van Persie hat-trick in a 5-3 victory in 2011. Our last victory at the Bus Stop was in November 2022, when Gabriel slid the ball into the net at close range from a Saka corner, our third successive victory at that venue for the first time since the seventies. Last season, we made an exhilarating late recovery from a two goal deficit that was the result of a soft penalty (Kavanagh awarded it, for the ball brushing Saka’s arm as he leapt for a header, after being called to the monitor – déjà vu?) and a fluky Mudryk cross-cum-shot that beat Raya in one of his early starts for Arsenal prompting widespread but ultimately unnecessary angst about his height. We drew level with a 35 yard cracker from Rice on 77 minutes followed by a deft back-post touch by Trossard from a wicked Saka cross on 84 minutes and could well have gone on to win it.
We have played the Chavs at the bus stop 95 times in several competitions: the Football League Division One, FA Cup, League Cup, Premier League and UEFA Champions League. Including our first visit ending in a 1-2 reverse for Woolwich Arsenal in 1907, we have won 32 games, drawn 31 times and lost 35 times. This is a respectable record and not in any way a record that makes one want to sing along with Elvis – though, by several accounts, Mudryk would happily join the chorus. However, these numbers conceal a phenomenon that is now the subject of an as yet unconsummated series of charges. If we split the Premier League era into three periods: Before Corruption, the Russian Mafia Money Years and Post Abramovich we find a different pattern:
Before Corruption: 5 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats
Russian Mafia Money Years: 3 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats
Post Abramovich: 2 wins, 1 draw and no defeats
The overt and covert shenanigans of Abramovich and his henchmen changed the landscape of the Premier League, transformed a club that was previously a music hall joke and paved the way for the Sheiks of Araby with their creative accountancy that distorted England’s competitive landscape even more dramatically. These misdemeanours were called out by Arsene Wenger in the noughties but his warnings fell on deaf ears. Cash clearly talked louder. We now await retribution with bated breath. It certainly made a difference: a club that previously had a solitary first division title (under Arsenal legend Ted Drake), 3 FA Cups, 2 League Cups and 2 UEFA Cup Winners Cups to its name prior to the injection of Russian money then went on to win 5 Premier League titles, 5 FA Cups and 2 Champions Leagues.
In anticipation of this preview, I decided to watch the Chavs’ Europa Conference League tie against a team named after the man who built the ark, not an inappropriate opponent for a club that spent the last few windows acquiring at least a pair of every sort of player ending up with a squad of over forty players for incoming new coach Enzo Maresca to sort into sheep, goats and those who weren’t getting near the grass because he just didn’t fancy them.
In the Noah game, the ex-Lesta coach made eleven changes from the team that drew 1-1 at the Old Toilet last weekend, resting his entire first team and playing fringe players such as Felix, Fernandez and Mudryk and a bunch of senior academy players. The opposition didn’t amount to much (I don’t think they would have survived the Great Flood), were 4-0 down in 20 minutes and I didn’t learn very much before I switched to the Manure match and then decided to watch paint dry.
To be fair, Maresca has transformed the assortment of misfits that Boehly had collected on a series of very expensive whims and is clearly not only a man who knows the kind of players he likes, ruthlessly banishing those he doesn’t like, but is also a good coach, taking the club that most expected to be a mess into fourth place after ten Premier League games. Coming into this match, they have an identical record to the Arsenal, with five wins, three draws and two defeats but have scored three more goals (20, the third highest in the league) and conceded one more goal (12, seventh equal fewest) but have failed to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League since 21 September. At the Bus Stop, in the Premier League, they have beaten Brighton 4-2 and Newcastle 2-1 and drawn 1-1 with Palace and Forest while losing their opening match 2-4 to C130y. They also have a string of impressive away victories, notably at Wolves 6-2, Wet Spam 3-0 and Brighton 1-0.
Out of possession, Maresca tends to play 4-3-3 or 4-4-2, evolving into 3-2-4-1 when the ball is regained. One fullback, usually Gusto, inverts into midfield to overload the centre and the defence links to midfield with quick, short passes to create dynamic forward momentum while the two 8’s push forward to attack the opposition. Palmer, their most consistent creator, missed training on Tuesday due to a knock but seems likely to be fit for Sunday. Maresca has played Palmer as a right sided ’10’ rather than as a winger and he has thrived there by cutting inside from the inside right channel onto his left foot to shoot or, against an opposition committed to a high back line, playing through balls from deep to release a runner.
Sanchez has established himself as first choice keeper. Gusto has taken the right back slot during James’ prolonged absence and the latter returned at left back against Manure but the club captain was criticised recently by Maresca for a lack of leadership qualities. Cucurella may return at left back against us. Fofana and Colwill are clearly Maresca’s first choice centre backs. Caicedo has been outstanding as holding midfielder and was partnered by Fernandez until recently when Lavia has been preferred. Fernandez played 45 minutes against Noah on Thursday, captained the side and made three assists so may have a late role in Sunday’s game while Lavia had his feet up and will probably start.
The Chav coach currently relies on a consistent attacking set up with Jackson as central striker supported by Palmer and with Madueke and Neto on the wings sidelining expensive acquisitions Nkunku (£52m, 1 start) and Felix (£46m, 0 starts) who generally warm the bench alongside Mudryk and Sancho. All these players have pace and the wingers start wide and dart goalwards, thriving on Palmer’s passing range and threatening the space behind defenders. Frequently, Jackson will drop deep dragging out his marker to create space for a winger or a midfielder to run into.
When possession is lost, they immediately counter-press energetically with their midfield overload before dropping into a 4-4-2 block. Caicedo, whom Maresca has restored to the impressive form that interested us at Brighton, leads the club’s stats on duels and ranks top in the Premier League for tackles. He is is often joined in the midfield press by either Gusto or Cucurella both of whom rank in the PL top twenty for defensive duels.
We can expect to have to work hard to penetrate their organised transition and defensive block meanwhile our defenders will need to be alert to their swift forays behind our defensive line. A significant disadvantage may be the unrewarded, heavy shift that our first team had to put in against Internazionale on Wednesday that will have taken a great deal out of them mentally and physically in comparison with the Chav first team who all had the full week off in which to prepare for our visit.
Our last two games have felt rather like ‘Groundhog Day’ and the absence of Martin Ødegaard appeared more telling in these games than in previous matches. Massed ranks of large, determined and most pertinently, well-organised defenders proved an almost insurmountable obstacle to an Arsenal team lacking the energy, drive, guile and creativity that Martin Ødegaard brings to the space between the opposition midfield and defence. We haven’t been as abject as some would have it and there’s no doubt that our performance at the home of the top team in Serie A, who have yet to concede a goal this season, was better than our performance at Newcastle. But for some bad luck on the penalty front and some great blocks by Milan defenders we would have taken at least the point that our performance deserved. Nonetheless, the arc of ennui reappeared, we kept lumping crosses for their monsters to repel and the lack of a disruptor in the box and swift movement and creativity was significant in the end. Hopefully, a Chelsea defence that has conceded 12 goals in 10 matches will prove more accommodating.
As ever recently, we approach this game with injury concerns. Declan Rice who missed the Milan game, apparently has a broken toe, has not trained at all by the time of Mikel Arteta’s Friday press conference and will have a late fitness test. Even should he pass that test, he will clearly not be playing at 100%. Kai Havertz came off in Milan with blood streaming from a head wound after a collision. Hopefully that is merely a superficial gash (the scalp bleeds like a stuck pig) and there are no concussion issues. Merino was subbed at half-time in Milan and MA8 said he had not been feeling well the day before the Milan match and his half time removal was precautionary. Hopefully he has thrown off the lurgy if he is required to replace or play alongside Rice.
It was a huge morale boost to see MØ8 take the field on Wednesday, albeit for only 5 minutes but I do not expect him to start this game. The only selection issue is, in his absence, who will comprise our starting midfield trio. Actually, this shows that our team is scarily predictable, making life easy for opposition coaches who merely need to double or triple mark Saka and Martinelli to neutralise Arsenal’s attack. Hence, I would select Ethan Nwaneri, on the basis of his poise and robust appearances to date, his unfamiliarity to the opposition and the unpredictabilty that his movement and control brings to our attack. My team is therefore:
Raya
White Saliba Gabriel Timber
Nwaneri Partey Rice/Merino
Saka Havertz Martinelli
After our harvest of one point from our last three Premiership games and consecutive defeats in the last two games, this feels like a ‘must-win’ especially considering the gap to the league leaders. It’s certainly a must-not-lose and with yet another Interlull coming up, the prospect of festering over another defeat is intolerable. Coming at the end of a difficult run of games, I suspect that our weary players may have to be content with a hard-fought 1-1 or 2-2 draw though the bookies have us as slight favourites at 6/4 with the draw at 13/5 and a home win at 15/8. Nonetheless, as ever recently, this Holic Pound is going to Ukraine.
Enjoy the game Holics, from whichever global vantage point you are viewing.
GO WIN, ARSENAL!
Great and amusing preview Bath. The Noah reference made me smile. A Chav friend said he found himself sitting at the Bus Stop last night wondering what on earth he was doing watching a team tgat woukd struggle to avoid relegation from the Chipping Sodbury Gasworks League .
But they are a danger especially if Palmer is fit. We played well on Wednesday but we lack creativity and Mikel needs to send the team in a cake baking or flower arranging course to get them sparking. I’m convinced we will be very strong after Christmas but we need to start picking up points now before the Interlull. I think this may end 1-1 . If it did I wouldn’t be too unh@pay as we would have played all but one of the best teams away already
Cheers Bath and thanks for the preview. I hope to see this game live but st least I have it set to record if need be. I’m hoping that my more regular viewing with the best part of Arsenal’s season, starting this weekend.
Hoping to coincide with the best part of our season, I mean
Thanks Bath
I like the idea of Ethan starting, something new to give the team a needed lift. I’m also hoping that Martin gets some game time later on as we desperately need him back full time as soon as.
2-1 is my prediction.
UTA.
Excellent image in NBN’s latest report in the goings-on in the Predictathon table: “OM’s Italian sojourn lifted him close to the escape hatch from the relegation zone, only to find TTG standing on it.”
I’m not sure why (by my count) 7 players have beaten “The Crowd” while more than double that number trail “The Crowd”. Who is this mysterious player, anyway? 🤔
Italian sojourn? Escape hatch? And why would TTG be standing atop the Alps, which surely must be the escape hatch from the Italian relegation zone, unless TTG is guarding the Italian Riviera of course.
Great stuff, bath – comprehensive to say the least and as TTG said, some good quips too – “sorting the sheep from the goats and those not allowed near the grass” did it for me 😉
We are in a bit of a creative funk at the moment although we should have won in Milan but for another bonkers penalty decision – or two ! – and some profligate finishing and a few desperate but good last ditch blocks by Italian defenders.
I would also start Nwaneri – or Odegaard depending on fitness. The young man has done enough to deserve a start and we have to get better forward impetus in our midfield. Unfortunately the left side of our midfield is not going to transform until it gets more settled in terms of personnel. Martinelli is working hard but has no consistent support partner to develop an understanding with. Metino and Calafiori have played very few games and are both still settling in.
However, it will all come good at some stage so why not tomorrow. In the meantime don’t forget that it took Bergkamp, Henry and Pires time to settle too – more than Metino and Calafiori have had so far.
Cheers, bath! Great and entertaining preview.
Hoping for a positive result at last, so that I don’t have to feel miserable all the way to Lancaster on Monday.
Excellent Bath!
Totally agree with your team lineup.
Ethan deserves a start!
3-1 I hope!
An excellent, amusing and comprehensive report, Bath, that belies the tight deadline against which it was written. I have always assumed there must be a decent XI somewhere among the gazillion players that Boehly has bought, just by the law of averages. Maresca has found it.
This game is a must-win one, however. We need to end our winless run. I recall something Wegner said about the importance of winning the next match after a defeat, as runs of two or three games dropping points can quickly turn into seven or eight.
bt8@5: The Crowd, to remind Predictathon players, represents their collective predictions. I will relate a story about the Victorian academic Francis Galton in honour of Bath’s four-legged theme above. Galton observed at a county fair that the average guess of the crowd at the butchered weight of an ox was more accurate than the majority of the individual guesses. That observation became the basis of the idea of the wisdom of crowds.
Of course, like the children of Lake Wobegon, all our crowd is above average.
Ned – interesting stuff on the wisdom of crowds. Some people have also learned well that crowds can generate hysteria – and not always for the good of said crowd. Brilliant example of that just this week on your side of the pond – and far worse examples in history.
Excellent,, very interesting preview Bath. After a week avoiding football, we’ll be at “the bus stop in Fulham” tomorrow and I’ll be sharing my experiences in the blog on Monday.
So come on you Gunners, let’s put our best foot forward and smash the Fulham Road moneybags!
Michael Oliver warming up for tomorrow – has just ruled out a goal for Southampton – over harsh according to radio, and overruled the on pitch decision – NOT clear and obvious. Surprise, surprise.
Don’t forget to get ON the bus, C100. Good luck, and enjoy!
Great preview Bath, many thanks!
2-0 sounds about right
Good stuff from Pedro this morning:
https://www.le-grove.co.uk/p/chelsea-preview-title-drift-danger
Hopefully this visit to the Bus Stop results in a game that is as entertaining as Bath’s preview – although he’s set a high bar. Appearances of Martin and Ethan would, I think, likely enhance the likelihood of a real spectacular – way above that ever offered by the Crowd at Lake Wobegon but unlikely ever to reach the dizzy heights served up by the Soderbjergs at “Friendly Neighbour” station WLT* in South Minneapolis where blind baseball announcer Buck Steller got more calls correct than Michael Oliver ever has or will.
I found it impossible to imagine that anyone moderately competent couldn’t assemble a very competitive eleven from the overflowing wealth of talent available to him/her** at the Bus Stop. I have them finishing third in my Predictathon. Table watchers will be aware that this position is potentially available to them today. Let’s not give that a snowball’s of happening (yet) Arsenal.
* With Lettuce and Tomato
** It’s coming yet for a’ that
Lest we forget.
Though, without malice, I hope the Pensioners are disappointed this evening.
We’re in
Enjoy, mate.
Hope you can get out too!
COYG
What time is the next bus from Chav town?
Gabeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
We were the better team today and looked far smoother and well balanced in possession now Ødegaard is back in the engine room. It’s a pity defensive disorganisation allowed Neto (nasty little character – I can see why we didn’t sign him) to equalise. Hopefully Saka, Rice and Ødegaard will not travel to the Internationals.
Onwards.
Baff knows.
What Ollie said @26 about Bath @25, although Neto was far from the only nasty little character in blue. Seems to be a Chav speciality.
Annoyingly unnecessary goal to have conceded, and we still can’t cop much of a break.
That was a nervy watch but a decent game and a decent and deserved point. Arguably we should have won but it was good to get Odegaard back and he did very well. I would expect Rice and Saka to stay at home over the Interlull to recover and Edu’s successor might turn his or her mind to getting more penetration upfront particularly wide left .
Gyokeres and Nico Williams will do. Clearly Sterling is not considered a viable option as he is so rarely used
TTG@28: Sterling couldn’t have played today. Parent club and all that.
Meanwhile, the GHF Predictathon leaderboard for Match Week 11 has been posted. Change at the top and bottom and in the middle. You know where to find it….
Ned – I’d picked that up today but I am still surprised by how little used he has been in other matches
TTG@30: when he has played, he has not been overwhelming.
We were the better team. – should have won it but just failed to convert two or three more good chances. Once the injured players are fully rehabbed we will be fine but must take the chances we create. Odegaard was brilliant – 90 minutes of quality after 9 weeks out.
Despite all their expensive new signings Chelsea are still a bunch of c£&#s.
It is but one of these rare absolute truths, Trev.
No amount of ‘despite’ for that spiteful bunch.
Great stuff from Pedro this morning. A very thoughtful piece…
https://www.le-grove.co.uk/p/arsenal-clouds-start-to-clear
Cheers for a top preview Baff. Time and effort well spent.
Decent result. Shame to concede the goal we did, but we limited a talented Chelsea side who ended up shooting from distance more often than not. They have quality and one of them got through. It happens, and we aren’t exactly getting the rub of the green at the moment.
One thing that struck me in the piece you linked above is the reference he makes to our players getting ‘hammered’, presumably by our own fans. That says a lot more about the way people watch and react to football than to thw players themselves. Havertz works his balls off every game and was about 3cm away from opening the scoring against his old club. Who’s hammering him for that?
I agree with more seasoned viewers in this bar: we’ll be fine.
It’s been a tough start. Challenging fixtures; refereeing decisions not faced by any other team which have cost us multiple points and which have been, frankly, unfair; a series of injuries and niggles to a large number of the squad; and we’ve been missing a bit of luck too (how close was Havertz to being onside?).
Once things settle down and we get going I’m sure we will start putting serious points on the board.
I’ll take a punt that the league will be won with a mere 84 points this year. Its easy to laugh at Spurs losing at home to Ipswich, but the old adage about no easy games has never been truer, and everyone who thinks they are the bees’ knees is gonna lose a couple of rough games to teams who remind us all that the strength in depth of the PL far outstrips any other league in the world.
Finally, I don’t like Chelsea, but Maresca seems alright and he’s building on Potechino’s excellent base to turn them into a very good side. Stamford Bridge won’t be an easy place to visit this year.
>>>>>>>