The season has reached a critical juncture where the league leaders face a trio of challenging games in short order in which they might just drop a few points. It is vital that we now keep up the pressure on Slot and his team. West Ham’s visit on Saturday therefore represents yet another ‘must win game’ for the Arsenal to narrow the gap to 5 points after Villa took two points off Liverpool in a well-earned draw at Villa Park. It’s really quite simple: we just have to keep doing our own job and, by hook or by crook, beat every team in front of us as the fixtures wind down.
Our visitors claim to have been founded in 1895 as ‘Thames Ironworks’ only to be disbanded in 1900. Another club was refounded as West Ham United later that year subsequently joining the Football League in 1919. The Boleyn Ground was that club’s home from 1904 until 2016 when it received a gift from London Mayor in the award of tenancy of the former Olympic Stadium at a peppercorn rent with the ratepayers funding conversion costs to a ‘football stadium’. That move was expected to give the club a huge competitive boost but the ground is apparently a soulless place to watch football where the stadium’s original design features leave most fans far too far from the action. In addition the stands frequently appear to be filled with toxicity – though that may simply be the culture of the natives. There were certainly clear delusions of grandeur after that move but fan expectations have not yet been met and, frankly, seem unlikely ever to be met. Another as yet unfulfilled dream was that the club would be sold to a Chinese investor and their current pornographer owners would ride into the sunset with their saddle bags stuffed with gold. Dream on, barrow boys.
Although West Ham have never actually been anything other than London’s fourth largest club, they have indeed won five major honours over the years. They won the FA Cup in 1963, 1975 and 1980, the European Cup Winners Cup in 1965 (under Ron Greenwood, with an exciting young team which included three stalwarts-to-be of England’s World Cup winners in 1966), and most recently the Europa Conference League in 2023 (lifted by a certain Mr D. Rice) prompting, for a season, the preposterous chant of ‘Champions of Europe’! Delusions of grandeur in the boardroom as well as on the terraces were probably responsible for their failure to offer a contract extension in 2024 to David Moyes, who had twice saved them from relegation, took them to three consecutive European tournaments, for the first time in their history, including reaching the Europa League semi-final in 2021-22 then lifting that Europa Conference League trophy in 2022-23. Their beef was apparently that the quality of football they were playing had regressed which was probably not unrelated to the sale of key players, including a certain Mr D Rice. Moyes was replaced by the underwhelming Julian Lopetegui in May last year but his team lost 9 of 20 Premier League games leading to his replacement on 8 January by Graham Potter with the club sitting in 14th place.
At least West Ham can proudly claim to be one of only eight clubs never to have been relegated below the second tier of English football (the certificate is in the post). However, they have spent only 67 of 99 seasons in the top flight and their highest ever league position is third place on a single occasion: 1985-86. Although, when they visit the Grove, their fans sing, “We hate Tottnumb more than you,” their traditional rival is Millwall FC due to their common origins as neighbouring Thames ironworks teams and the Hammers’ frequent sojourns in the second tier. Those matches have a certain spiciness on the pitch, on the terracing and even in the streets. It’s not a fixture which the Met anticipate with glee.
Since Potter’s appointment, West Ham have played a series of matches more reminiscent of the old Southern League than the globe conquering Premiership. After being knocked out of the FA Cup by Villa the day after his appointment, the ‘new manager bounce’ kicked in briefly when they beat Fulham 3-2 at the Council Stadium following which they have lost 0-2 at home to Palace, drawn away to Villa, lost away to Chelsea and lost at home to Brentford. They now sit 16th but are 10 points clear of the relegation zone though two places below Everton whose fortunes have been transformed by none other than David Moyes. While points-wise they are, at present, well clear of the relegation scrap, continuation of their current form will see them slip inexorably towards it. We can therefore expect them to scrap desperately for a point on Saturday.
Potter’s preferred playing style may best be characterised as ‘fluid possession-based football’. At Brighton, he constantly changed team formation and personnel, occasionally playing 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 but most frequently using a back three and selecting players capable of changing roles within games. In possession he likes his forward(s) to drift wide to support an advancing wing back, creating space for central midfielders or the other wing back to run into attacking areas and take advantage of diagonal cut-backs from the wide men. Potter’s regular 3-4-2-1 employs two ’10’s’ supporting a lone striker, creating a four man midfield box to overload the opposition’s three man midfield. Meanwhile, Potter’s wide centre backs are encouraged to get forward regularly to support the wingback on their side – an attribute that you will recognise Benjamin White has successfully brought to his Arsenal game.
Out of possession, Potter’s wing backs and wide midfielders press their direct opponents aggressively out wide while his preferred double pivot hold their zonal positions to screen the defence and the two 10’s move wide to prevent in-field passes. Their aim is to force the opponent into wide areas, away from their goal, also creating space for a breakout if they can regain possession. When the opposition has extended periods of possession Potter’s teams fall back into a 5-2-3 or 5-4-1 using a combination of low and mid blocks. In terms of defensive actions, Potter’s Brighton were the fourth most aggressive team for pressing, duelling, tackling and interceptions in his final season there, primarily due to the workrate of his two pivots and two ’10’s’.
Undoubtedly, in the 6 weeks he has been in charge Potter will have begun to induct his new squad into his preferred strategies. Whether he adapts his tactics to a squad that was built for Lopetugi’s 4-2-3-1 system or finds players ready to adopt his methods remains to be seen. However, he has inherited an efficient double pivot in Alvarez and Soucek though they are less technically-gifted or creative than his erstwhile Brighton pairs. However., Wan-Bissaka, Kudus, Ferguson and Bowen are certainly the kind of players who would fit his mould.
Paqueta is a doubt following an ankle injury in training which means Brighton loanee Ferguson may make his first start. Summerville is out with a hamstring injury and Coufal is also expected to miss this match. Strikers Fullkrug and Antonio are long term absentees. The following starting XI is predicted by several sources: Areola; Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Kidman, Emerson; Alvarez, Ward-Prowse; Bowen, Kudus, Solar; Ferguson.
The latest news from the Arsenal camp seems to be all about successful surgical procedures. In the past week or so, Tomiyasu, Havertz and Nelson have gone under the knife and will not play again this season with the Japanese defender unlikely to be fit again until the end of the YEAR! More encouragingly, John Cross has reported in the Mirror that Mikel Arteta is targeting Fulham’s visit on 1 April for the return of both Martinelli and Saka – make of that what you will, given the date selected! However with Jesùs in the early phase of rehab post ACL surgery, we will face the Hammers without our four first choice attackers.
Thank the Lord (DB10 – no conversions here) that our Hale End graduates have stepped up to the plate so brilliantly and Mikel Merino has emulated Kai Havertz, at least initially, (hopefully to be continued indefinitely) in transforming himself from a toiling midfielder into a deadly finisher – truly a caterpillar to butterfly scale mutation. We need those three players to reproduce their Lesta form against West Ham and thereafter. I have to give special flowers to the Hale End lads. Without MLS’s toe poke deflection, I doubt whether we would have taken all 3 points at Lesta and Nwaneri’s match long endeavours should have been rewarded with more than that beautiful assist and two strikes on the woodwork. Frankly, without the emergence of those two lads we would not be breathing down the Scousers’ necks. Hopefully further rewards will be forthcoming. Benjamin White has been training with the first team since Dubai, was on the bench at Lesta and can also be expected to be available on Saturday.
There are few questions about our starting XI. Will White start, giving Timber a well earned rest or will he join the game from the bench after 60 minutes? I suspect the latter. Will MLS retain the left back slot after several outstanding performances or will Calafiori claim the starting position? I suspect the former. After 70 minutes of unrewarding toil by Sterling prompting the consensus that the man was willing but that ‘his legs had gone’, we saw the value of a big, technically-gifted player driving into the middle of the opposition box. Will Merino start in the attack or, as Mikel Arteta implied had been his strategy against Lesta, will Sterling join Trossard and Nwaneri in driving at and tiring out the opposition’s defenders to create, as the game draws late, the space for our Big Brawny Basque Bomber to finish the job? Personally, I would start Merino up front from the off and bring Sterling on at 60-70 minutes to allow one of the starting forwards to put their feet up for half an hour, but Mikel knows better.
Thus, my starting XI is as follows (Mikel will likely have other ideas):
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, MLS
Ødegaard, Partey, Rice
Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
We have won 74 out of 152 matches against West Ham (lost 41), scored at least 5 in each of our last two games against them and are unbeaten in 15 games, whilst West Ham haven’t kept a clean sheet in 2025. We should be optimistic that, even bereft of four top attackers, we will score goals and should win this game. If we dominate possession, as I expect, control the ball, maintain defensive solidity and regularly get the ball to Nwaneri, Dave’s favourite 2-0 scoreline seems a likely outcome. Thus the Holic Pound is going on this scoreline which is offered at 5/1 at SkyBet.
The match kicks off at 3pm and is therefore not being televised live in the UK. Overseas viewers have a number of live broadcast options.
If we are going to hunt Liverpool down, we need to win this game.
Enjoy the game, ‘Holics.
ONE. GAME. AT. A. TIME.
The standard of previews on here, which was always high, has gone up another notch this year and this is another quite excellent one , full of history, opponent information and a very cogent analysis of our likely formation .
There is a lot of comment on social media now, some from do-called experts, many of whom are , not very bright ex-pros often with a chip on their shoulder ( often an anti- Arsenal chip ) .
I’m amazed that having used Merino to dig us out of a hole , many ‘ commentators ‘ would put us back in that hole with Trossard overpowered ( although it looks like he may be marked by Nicole Kidman this week, lucky chap) and Sterling impotent, out of form and redundant out wide . Merino must start with Leo wide . Nwaneri and MLS shoukd start but if Benny is fit perhaps he might relieve the excellent Timber as starter given a big game in Wednesday at Forest .
Defeat or even a draw is not an option- we must put maximum pressure on Liverpool. I think Merino will continue his run of scoring form in a 3-0 win
PSV it is.
Some good games
PSG v Pool
Real v Athletico
Bayern v Leverkusen
And either Madrid if we get past PSV.
It’s the far more difficult side of the draw. Without firepower it’s an extremely tall order to get past either Madrid side. If by some miracle we do, we face Liverpool or PSG in the semi-final. As Blogs says this morning, the PL is a much more achievable objective though it’s still a difficult task from where we currently sit. One game at a time, gents.
PSV have played 3 drawn 3 in Feb against Utrecht, Willem II and NEC. So, in other words they look a bit shit.
Very thorough preview, baff.
I still suspect Sterling will start once more.
2-0 to the good guys sounds good, though I’d like it to be made comfortable earlier than last weekend.
Excellent preview, bath—full of history and opintel, as TTG says. We just have to take it three points at a time.
We have to take the CL one round at a time, too. We are in the tougher half of the draw, but it is a matter of degree only.
The Swiss Ramble has published his analysis of the Club’s financial results for 2024, which aligns with my quick summary in the previous drinks, albeit with much more detail, context and nuance — not to mention accounting expertise. He writes:
Although Arsenal’s £18m loss is not something to write home about, there is plenty of good news in this set of financials. They smashed their revenue record (with new highs in all three revenue streams) on the back of the return to the Champions League, while the loss was actually the Club’s smallest in the last six years.
To a certain extent, a loss is the inevitable price to pay for a club that wants to compete at the highest level, with Arsenal having to play catch-up with their major rivals.
The success on the pitch has also had a major beneficial impact on the bottom line, but it does underline the fact that Champions League qualification remains imperative for the business model.
On PSR, he says:
Arsenal had an adjusted PSR profit of £11m, which gave them significant £116m headroom. They should be even more comfortable next season, as the large 2021/22 loss will drop out of the equation.
However, all clubs’ compliance will focus more on the new, tighter UEFA regulations. Here he says:
Arsenal were also fine here, even though I have assumed that UEFA will only allow them a €5m loss, as they cannot make use of the additional €55m available when an owner makes an equity contribution….UEFA have also introduced squad cost control via a new ratio of player wages, transfers and agent fees that will ultimately be limited to 70% of revenue and profit from player sales. Based on my calculations, Arsenal’s ratio was 61% in 2023/24, so this should also not prove to be a major challenge for the Club.
Supremely comprehensive coverage of the subject matter, Bath and I’d take that 2-0 home win in a heartbeat. I fancy Ben White might get the nod and start while Timber enjoys 60 minutes of spectating in the February sunshine. It is indeed a ‘must win’ and also a ‘must not’ repeat last season’s home game against the same opponents.
COYG
Hello Goonerholic Forever !
I just wanted to message to say me and our Ciarán and my uncle Ciarán too are absolutely bloody loving this
Just go for it just fuckin go for it please boys
All the best to all of you and may the team do it for all the gooners in the better seats now
God bless David Faber
Bath’s threatened bullwhipping (blimey!) of Sterling failed to get rid, so reckon he prob starts too – but hope not. UTA!
Nice one Baff, consumately done. As you say, we’ve got to take 3 points and put the pressure back on Liverpool. I know it sounds ridiculous… but I fancy Sterling to score!
I saw PSV play extra time against Juve and they looked good going forward but a bit soft at the back. Small sample size of course. Frankly, I’d have much preferred the other half of the draw, but we always get the toughest CL draw available, so we’ll just have to deal with it.
Thanks for the preview, Bath. COYG put the pressure on the leaders when it counts
I’ve just seen the highlights of Madrid-Man City game. Atletico must be hoping that their cross-town rivals have got their stellar game of the competition out of their system.
Thanks Bath, great preview as ever and probably the team I would start too.
As you say Mikel does know better and he might start Sterling again.
Any win is fine and no more injuries, a lot to ask these days but fingers crossed.
I saw a little bit of Leicester v Brentford yesterday and Brentford tore them to shreds . Without labouring the point it put our first 70 minute performance and Sterling’s efforts into clear perspective . Arteta is bright if a little stubborn but. Purely he will heed the lesson
Usual mistake – Purely should read Surely !
Thanks Bath,
West Ham – annoying irritants at various times over the years. I fancy us for 3-0 this time with Sterling to score.
UTA.
A delayed read through an excellent preview, Bath.
Are you hiring your own monks these days, such is the detail on Potter’s tactics ?!
I think Merino might be a bit of a discovery up front – necessity being the mother of invention and all ….
On the other hand – Sterling – Bin 😱
Come on you Rreedddsss
Merino starts.
Raya,
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori,
Partey, Rice, Odegaard,
Nwaneri, Trossard, Merino.
Bench: Neto, White, Tierney, Lewis-Skelly, Zinchenko, Kiwior, Jorginho, Butler-Oyedeji, Sterling.
👍🏻 good selection, think alternating MLS and Calafiori is sensible.
Might have gone with Jorginho instead of a tired looking Partey myself but, fortunately for everyone, I’m not the manager 😉
Strong team, COYGs!
Thanks Bath for another brilliant preview – all bases covered. Wot Trev said although Partey has had a week to recover. Let’s give the spammers a spanking – a good win in the sunshine will do just nicely.
COYRRR
The game is a tough listen on Radio5Live. Making the Hammers sound dangerous. Can’t be, can they?
Yup
Are we missing MLS at LB? Sounds like wan-Bissaka had an easy run down the right wing there.
Big 45 minutes, but no reason we can’t pull it round. CoYGs!
That was a bastard and a half.
Forward line at the end : Sterling – busted flush (booted out by last 3 teams coz past it); Merino – a fairly ordinary centre-mid we already had plenty of & lightweight little Trossard who rarely does the bizz when he starts.
Them pesky refs.
Plan B I think needs to be find a way past PSV in the CL and then hope the Saka / Gabi M calvary arrives. From a PL perspective we just have to keep on and cement the CL place.
Bad day and I am beginning to really fucking dislike 2025
OM@30 I’m with you on 2025.
I’ve had low expectations since a few weeks after the season started, despite all the injuries and refereeing incompetence we’ve just not looked like the Arsenal of 1 and 2 years ago.
Too many players having too many off days and a manager who is as stubborn and intractable as Wenger could be, with zero tolerance for some players and an utter blind spot for others.
I’d allowed myself a wee bit of hope and as we all know in the end its the hope that kills you.
Potter’s ‘fluid possession-based football’ turned into a classic 5-4-1 low block, which we have previous in struggling to deal with.
Sloppy marking for their goal and sloppy play leading to MLS’s red. It all added up to another ‘not one of our days’, of which we have had too many this season.
Ødegaard had one of his games where, for all his hard work, he had no one to pass to, with Merino still learning how to play as a nine and Nwaneri barely being able to get into the game; it was a shame that he was off the pitch when White came on. Good to see Benny Blanco back. Not to pile in on Sterling, but when he is the cavalry…
The moment of the match was Raya outsprinting a Wet Spammer from within their half to recover the ball, and then doing a nifty back heel and turn to get the ball back up the pitch. Given that turn of speed, perhaps MLS’s red for denying Kudos a goal-scoring opportunity wasn’t so nailed on. I wonder if Raya set a record today for touches by a goalkeeper in the opposition’s half. **Desperately searches for silver linings**
Not a great day for PL home fans anywhere. Not a winner among the six home teams so far, and Villa is trailing in the late game.
That was absolute torture.
>>>>>>>