And so to the City Ground, Nottingham, to take on Nuno Espírito Santo’s Forest on Wednesday evening.
Our hosts are the second-oldest club in the Football League. They ascended to the status of the oldest when Notts County dropped into non-league football between 2019 and 2023, and Stoke City’s claims were debunked. Forest’s origin story dates to 1865. A group of shinty players met in a pub in the city and elected to form a football team. I suspect that, as with the founders of many Victorian football teams, they also were cricketers looking to augment their off-season exercise.
Shinty is similar to (field) hockey and shares hurling’s Celtic roots. These days, the game survives mainly in the Scottish Highlands and pockets of South Wales, where it is known as bando. In the Victorian era, it was played across England. Its winter variant, played on ice, called bandy, was particularly popular in the East Midlands, with ample flat marsh meadow and fen to freeze over. The sporting goods company, Gray’s, has a Victorian bandy stick whose handle is wrapped in rope, which doubled as a hand grip and for rescuing the player if the ice gave way beneath them.
Forest’s original name was the Nottingham Forest Foot-Ball and Bandy Club. It also had a baseball nine, the game being widespread across the East Midlands and North of England in Victorian times, as we discussed in the Preston North End league cup preview earlier this season.
With Notts County’s moniker yet to be set in stone — it was variously referred to as the Nottinghamshire, Nottingham and Notts Football Club — Forest named themselves after the Forest Cricket Ground where they played (adding to the suspicion that they were also cricketers).
This was part of the Forest Recreation Ground, open parkland to the north of the city centre, uses in past times ranging from pedestrianism to horse racing. It derived its name from its historical location at the southern edge of Sherwood Forest. An early nickname for the club, which favoured the Scottish passing game over kick and rush, was the Tricky Trees.
In February 1866, Forest advertised in the local paper for players for pick-up games between its members—a common practice when there were few other clubs to play against. For example, a couple of months earlier, Notts had pitted a team of its lighter members against the heavier ones. For the record, it was a draw.
Notts were Forest’s first inter-club opponents. The match, played at the Forest Rec in March, was overshadowed by the much-anticipated visit of the Sheffield club to play Notts in what was then still a rarity: a match between the leading clubs of different cities. Lost in all the excitement, Notts’ game with Forest seemingly went unreported in the local prints.
However, the late April return match at Notts’ Meadows cricket ground warranted a small paragraph in the Nottingham Journal. The game ended in a 1-1 draw, although, with the cricket season started, Notts were missing some of its better-known cricketers, including scions of the Daft, Parr and Shaw families.
The Opposition
Nuno’s Forest side bears a striking resemblance in one notable aspect to Brian Clough’s Forest sides that won back-to-back European Cups in 1979 and 1980. The defenders defend, and the attackers attack — and no fluid triangles, boxes, or other Euclidian constructions, inversions or automatisms meld the two units. You can just hear Cloughie saying in that distinctive voice, ‘We don’t do **lingering stress on the ‘do’** positional play at this club, son’.
Cloughie once told his centre-half, Larry Lloyd, ‘Hey, big head. Just win the ball and then give it to someone who can play.’ Similarly, Nuno wants his defence to get the ball to the attacking midfielders as quickly as possible and for them to run straight at the opposition and play in the striker. Nuno sets up on paper in a 4-2-3-1, but in practice, it is more a 4-2 and a 3-1.
This is evidenced by Forest having the joint lowest share of possession in the Premier League, 40% on average. There are no horseshoes of ennui to keep possession, no high defensive lines for recycling the ball or complex build-ups from the back. Forest also has the lowest number of attempted and completed passes in the PL.
Yet, when one looks at the defensive stats, Forest’s numbers are those of a team near the top of the table. Only ourselves and ‘Pool have conceded fewer goals. No side has kept more clean sheets or made fewer defensive errors. Few sides have been as good at keeping opponents to low-value shots.
This last line of defence is the ever-present Belgian glove butler, the lanky Matt Sels. He leads David Raya and Everton’s Jordon Pickford in the race for the Golden Glove. Bought from Strasburg a year ago for less than £7 million, he looks like a bigger bargain with the passing of every day.
The young Brazilian Murillo, who is having a breakout season, and the 6’5″ Serbian international Nikola Milenkovic are the bedrock of Forest’s defence, with fellow centre-backs Morato and Wilfred Boly providing more than adequate cover. They can also be deployed as the third centre-back if Nuno decides to go full Graham Potter and use a back three, as he did against Bournemouth and Fulham. However, he had reverted to a four before the end of the loss at Fulham.
The young Welsh international Neco Williams and equally young Nigerian international Ola Aina currently occupy the full-back berths, with the veteran Spaniard Álex Moreno, on loan from Aston Villa, as cover.
Elliot Anderson, signed from Newcastle at the start of the season for £34 million, screens the back four, along with either the home-grown Ryan Yates or the Argentina international Nicolás Domínguez bought from Bologna in 2023. Danilo, who is on the fringe of the Brazil squad and the Ivorian Ibrahim Sangare, both returning from long-term injuries, offer alternatives from the bench.
Their other job is to get the ball to the advanced three midfielders: Anthony Elanga, a 22-year-old Swedish international whom the Red Mancs jettisoned two summers back; Morgan Gibbs-White, who has won the Under-17 World Cup and Under-21 Euros with England; and Callum Hudson-Odoi, the England international whom Chelsea, of all people, sold for £2 million in 2023.
Their job is to set up Chris Wood, the veteran New Zealand striker enjoying an Indian summer. He is third in the PL goal-scoring charts, behind Mo Salah and Erling Haaland, with 18 goals, twice as many as our best scorer in the league, who is still Kai Havertz. Taking out Wood’s three penalties and making the usual caveats about the expected goals stat, his goals scored are almost double his xG.
Nor is there another striker in the league close to his conversion rate: 35% of his shots are goals; next closest among strikers with at least ten goals is Alexander Isak at 25%. Haaland is at 20% and Salah at 18%. Wood is simply having the season of his life. Cut off the supply to him, and Forest finds it difficult to win games. Their next highest scorer is Gibbs-White with five, followed by Elanga and Hudson-Odoi with three apiece.
Wood is a big part of why Forest, as GHF Predictathon players know only too well, is defying all expectations after successive relegation battles in its first two seasons back in the Premier League.
The Arsenal
Our opponents have been unexpectedly high-flying all season but have lost altitude of late, with three defeats in their past four games, although all were away games; they haven’t lost at home since November.
After Saturday’s tumble against West Ham, we have to get up and running again as quickly as possible. At this point,’ Pool still has to win nine of their remaining 11 league game to be mathematically certain of the title. Arteta says he wants his side hounding them down to the last. Finishing second will also mean a few more million quid in prize and broadcasting money to chuck into the summer transfer pot than will be available if we slide down the table.
Two selection questions present themselves: is Benny Blanco fit enough to start, allowing Timber to return to left-back or have a rest, and does Merino continue at nine? I am guessing the answers are no to the former (although White will get an extended run-out off the bench) and yes to the latter (we all know the alternative). Thus:
Raya
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori
Ødegaard, Partey, Rice
Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
Yes, it’s a must-win game for Arteta, but that’s true for Nuno, too. If we can cut off the supply to Wood, our defensive prowess should prevent Forest scoring. We will then just need to recover the spark to score a couple at the other end — two-nil to the Arsenal, the scoreline of champions.
Enjoy the game, ‘holics, near and far.
Your usual superb preview Ned of a very tricky game , many thanks
I wasn’t remotely impressed by Forest ( and hadn’t watched them) until Boxing Day when I saw them rope a dope the Spuds . They then gave Liverpool a terrific game and frankly I don’t expect us to score tomorrow so the best we can expect is a goalless draw. I say this in the hole my pessimism is unfounded but I was there on Saturday against a team with an inferior defence .
If we did get a point there it would be a big achievement in current circumstances. But I did like the spirit engendered by Mikel’s presser and hope he can generate enough momentum to keep us competitive in the league
Thanks for setting it up so well, Ned. COYG
Thanks Ned, an enjoyable and informative read as ever. As you say Wood is having an astonishing season, I think he must be on drugs personally such is the improvement on his previous seasons of honest but uninspired toil at Burnley and the Barcodes. However, if we can avoid giving away sloppy goals then I can’t see any reason not to nick a 1-0 to The Arsenal.
Like TTG i was pleased with MA’s presser, and I hope the team take the message to heart. Let’s leave the wailing, gnashing, wringing etc to one side and get on with it.
Cheers Ned. Great preview, I’m with Matt hoping for a welcome return of ‘1-0 to the Arsenal’.
Would lift my spirits a bit after last weekend’s utter dross and rupturing my right Achilles yesterday.
Quite stupendous preview, Ned. Clearly the Matins and Vespers have book-ended some prodigious daytime research from the monks.
I’m hoping against hope for tonight that we can pull off a win. It’s hard to see where our goal(s) will come from and our defence will need to be completely on it. We need to watch for Wood seemingly ghosting into the 6 yard box late from corners and set pieces while the freakishly large Milenkovic draws all the attention from defenders.
Thanks for this Ned. Forest are one of the great traditional clubs from early memories of Trevor Francis and Viv Anderson. And I never understood why there is no rivalry between them and County.
Tactics tonight. Should we go extra negative and give them the ball? It could be a Mexican stand off where the ball remains on the centre spot for the whole game.
Heh, I like your thinking there, SP!
Cheers Ned. Fantastic preview.
Heh @SP.
Our central defenders will be up it against Wood. He’d be excellent in our team, good finisher but also someone you can lump crosses at without needing a series of pinpoint passes through the centre.
Anything could happen, but I hope to see a reaction after the awful performance at West Ham. If we play to our strengths we can certainly get a result.
Excellent writing of an easy and interesting read, Ned !
Love the Brian Clough quote, young maaan !
I still remember two lines from impressionist Mike Yarwood (sorry kids !) about Cough – when some thought he was getting a bit above his station – but in Clough’s voice –
“They were going to make me the England coach, you know. They were going to take me teeth out and put some seats in.”
“Well, I’ve sold Trevor Francis to Juventus for a million pouounds, and Gary Birtles to Fray Bentos for corned beeef !”
Thanks Ned for your habitually informative preview. I pray that your predicted score is divine. I’m holy behind your team.
Not good, Ollie! Sorry to read your news. Are you going to need surgery?
Like Matt, I wonder where a goal can come from. I hope MA8 has seen a weakness in Forest that we can exploit, depleted though we are. Otherwise I think SP’s suggested strategy is worth adopting. Needs must! A point’s a point!
An interesting and stimulating preview, Ned. I think the team you’ve proposed is very likely to take to the field tonight although I’d have a preference for Ben White right from the start.
I’m hoping to see Ethan and White getting to the touchline on the right and Trossard and Cala doing the same on the left. I’m tiring of watching our very intricate efforts to play our way through 11 players in an eighteen yard space. Low fast crosses please; and maybe some of these back to Partey and Calafiori for cannon efforts from the edge of the box.
Our first team (even with Declan and Kai starting on the bench) thumped Forest 3-0 at home. A 0-1 away win would be a real tonic after Saturday’s insipid affair. We have the skillset to make that happen.
Ollie, ouch ! I didn’t see that earlier. Here’s wishing you a full recovery but there’s no pretending it’s going to be quick !
Heh, good ‘quotes’ Trev @ 9.
Cheers Trev, yeah, ‘speedy’ won’t come into it.
Indeed, bath @ 10. Seeing the surgeon this afternoon, hopefully operated on Friday.
Best of luck Ollie!
All the best Ollie!
All the best Ollie.
Tout les meilleur, Ollie. Here’s hoping your doctor understands French better than I do, unless you’re coming over on the Eurostar for your surgery. Courage mon brave.
Thanks for the kind words, all.
Ollie@4: Hope it goes well. Best wishes for a full recovery.
SP@6: A cunning plan.
Trev@9: 🙂 I’ve never decided if my favourite Clough quote is, I wouldn’t say I was the best manager in the business. But I was in the top one or If I had an argument with a player we would sit down for 20 minutes, talk about it and then decide I was right!
bt8 @17, Ollie – mais oui, maid oui, Rodders !
A delightful read Ned, thank you! Hope the match offers similar joy.
I was expecting some oblique Robin Hood reference too, but maybe that would have been predictable?
Your team is the likeliest. But maybe Mikel will surprise us? I like the idea of Nwaneri in the central striker role, Timber as the RW, and White as the fullback.
Whatever pressure was the team’s shoulder, after last weekend it must have been lifted a bit as there really is no expectation anymore of winning the league. When we are playing with freedom and full confidence in expressing ourselves, I think we are well capable of beating most teams even with our current injury situation.
Come on Arsenal!
Thanks all.
Operation now confirmed for Friday, my limited skills with the crutches is improving already, worked out a few tricks to use them as tools!
Now for the Arsenal to do a good job tonight!
ned, nice work. i didn’t realize so many clubs in england had baseball teams back at the dawn of the game (of baseball AND association football). thanks.
ollie, bonne chance with the achilles. i’m guessing that means your forays into the french national basketball team are now over…
Ollie, best wishes with the surgery and then a fast and full recovery.
Jorginho in for Partey. Otherwise unchanged from West Ham.
Raya,
Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Calafiori,
Jorginho, Rice, Odegaard,
Nwaneri, Trossard,
Merino.
Subs: Neto, Kiwior, White, Zinchenko, Tierney, Partey, Sterling, Kabia, Butler-Oyedeji.
Thanks Ned for another superlative preview.
Let’s hope Mikel is able to rejuvenate the team’s approach following Saturday’s performance. It’s hard too see where a goal is coming from – we may need Owen Gholl to make an appearance. It may well be necessary as I’m concerned that their pacey wingers Elanga & Hudson-Odoi will expose our full backs for pace. We are overdue a set piece goal from a corner – come on Big Gabby!
COYRRR
Scruz@22: Indeed so. Albert Goodwill Spalding, a name you will recognise in connection with baseball equipment, was a great proselytiser (and financial backer) of the game in the United Kingdom in the late Victorian period. And forget all the myth-making around Abner Doubleday. Baseball has roots in a game played in the pre-industrial dairy cattle-rearing counties of southern England called stool-ball. There is a reason the base plates are similar to the bit of a milking stool you sit on.
Much better performance than against West Ham (low bar), but when Calafiori hit the post and the ball bounced straight into Sels’s arms, you somehow knew we weren’t going to score all afternoon. Kudos to those who predicted a 0-0.
Happy with the point not happy with not scoring.
A much better performance than Saturday. If we’d played like that against Spam we would have won. Damn shame Calfiori’s shot was an inch too far to the right and rebounded straight back rather than bouncing into the net. Calafiori adds more threat in the box than Merino. I’d play him up there v PSV.
Not a bad result in the circumstances.
Decent point. Much better performance. We’re obviously a bit goal shy but we just gotta keep plugging away.
>>>>>>>