The Arsenal’s prospects of finishing in the top four now look somewhat slimmer than they did only a couple of weeks ago. The news prior to the Palace match that Kieran Tierney required knee surgery and is probably out for the rest of the season was bad enough but the lethargic first half performance against Palace culminating in a 0-3 defeat and more significantly, the injury sustained by Thomas Partey were further blows to our aspirations. It seems very likely that neither of those two key players will be available during the run-in. The boss has a big challenge!
Our nine game run-in begins with a visit from Brighton who currently sit in relative safety in 13th place on 34 points but must be casting anxious glances over their shoulders as they endeavour to ensure a 6th consecutive season in the Premier League. The ‘Seagulls’ began this season well, further enhancing Graham Potter’s reputation as an up and coming English coach. Brighton’s form even led to cries from some Arsenal fans (who should have known better) for Potter to replace Mikel Arteta after we started poorly with a Covid ravaged squad and difficult early fixtures.
Brighton did have a great start sitting in 4th place after eight matches in mid-October with four wins, three draws and a solitary defeat while Arsenal sat in 12th having begun to climb the table with three wins and two draws after three initial goalless defeats. However, that was as high as the Seagulls soared or as bright as Brighton glowed. A subsequent preponderance of home and away draws (nine) plus three victories (two away wins at Everton and at Watford) and five defeats saw Brighton sitting securely in 9th place by early February. Then a run of six straight league defeats, four at home, with only a single goal scored (away at Newcastle) was ended only last weekend with a 0-0 draw at home to Norwich. However, in that goalless draw against Norwich, Brighton had a total of 31 shots on goal though only 4 were on target, and they also missed a penalty. This was apparently the equal highest total number of shots taken in a Premier League game this season along with Manure in their 7-0 win against Leeds.
Brighton clearly have a problem scoring goals. In their 30 Premiership games to date they have scored 26 goals, conceding 36. Closer scrutiny reveals that this deficit is more marked in home games where they have scored only 10 goals in 16 games whilst conceding 20 goals. At home they have won only 3 and lost 7 of 16 games played. In contrast, their scoring record in 14 away games is better with 16 scored and 16 conceded yielding 4 wins and 3 defeats. Draws, you ask? The Seagulls are top equal with Palace for drawn games in the PL. They boast a total of 13 draws and have drawn exactly half of their 14 away games to date. All this suggests that they are likely to sit deep, defend in serried ranks to knick a point but to break out occasionally in the hope of stealing three points as they did at Burnley, Brentford, Everton and Watford. That’s a list that we should avoid joining.
Brighton’s line up is reasonably predictable. They will have three big lumps at the back perming three from Dunk, Veltman, Cucurella and Duffy who will all hoover up every high ball into the box. Lamptey and March are their ‘go to’ wing backs bombing forward to support their forwards when given an opportunity. Their midfield is generally designed to obstruct rather than to create and their selection here is less predictable. I suspect Potter will put three into midfield to stifle us rather than just the pair of Gross and MacAllster whom he played against Norwich. I expect him to supplement them with either Bissouma, Moder or Lallana. Up front I think we will see our ‘friend’ Maupay alongside the tricky Trossard and expect Danny Welbeck to drop to the bench to accommodate the extra midfielder. Brighton’s goal threat comes from Maupay (9), Trossard (4) and MacAllister (4) with Danny Welbeck chipping in 3.
The challenge for the boss is how to recover the stability and security our defensive unit exhibited before Lady Luck deserted Arsenal at Palace, in the absence of both first-choice full backs and the screening defensive midfield pivot. It’s an interesting conundrum complicated by the continuing unavailability of Tomiyasu at right back, Tavares’ clear lack of confidence in his last two appearances and Xhaka’s previous poor performances when asked to play as a single pivot, especially against top opposition. I think Sambi Lokonga is too inexperienced to play as a single pivot in PL games and I am not convinced that Elneny, willing worker though he is, can do it much better. So, Xhaka is the best option we have to replace Partey (sorry, TTG!). Arteta has previously addressed a leaking Arsenal defence by playing a double pivot and he may well choose to do this against teams that offer more threat on paper than Brighton. The upside is added defensive security but the very clear downside is our markedly diminished offensive creativity and end-product. I just don’t expect Arteta to play a double pivot tomorrow as this is yet another ‘must win game’.
Likewise, I don’t expect Arteta to revert to a back three tomorrow which, as previously noted, reduces our end product. However, I do think it would be prudent to do so against our three remaining ‘top six’ opponents. I also think that a back three is a better structure for Tavares as he is clearly more comfortable as an offensive wing back than as a ‘back to the wall’ left back. Whether he plays tomorrow depends on how much Arteta believes his fragile confidence at Palace can be bolstered by further game time and that is a judgement only Arteta can make. Whilst Brighton at our place might be regarded as a good game to start rebuilding his confidence, it really depends how low that is and a rampaging Lamptey might prove another handful for him. If Tavares doesn’t make the cut, then I expect Cedric to switch to left back and Ben White to move to right back in Tomiyasu’s continued absence with Rob Holding partnering Gabriel at centre back. Lokonga added vim, vigour and passing accuracy when he replaced a sub-par Partey on Monday so I expect him to join the party tomorrow. He can be expected to add to our offensive creativity with crisp interplay in midfield. Whether he can compete with the Brighton midfield heavyweights remains to be seen. I expect him to be first choice to partner Xhaka when we do adopt a double pivot.
The other question facing the boss is whether to persist with our hard-working but non-scoring captain at ‘centre forward’. I personally would, if only because we have so many forced changes to key personnel at the back and in midfield that a bit of stability up front may help the players around him to adapt to the changes behind them. However, I fully understand the lobby urging Arteta to replace him by either moving Martinelli inside or giving Nketiah a full match to show his worth. I just think we should start this match with Lacazette. However, I would have a low threshold to make a change early in the second half if we are either ‘home and hosed’ or struggling to score. It would be a good opportunity to see how we look with Martinelli leading the line against three big lumps or, alternatively, to give Nketiah a good run out to gain match sharpness. If only we could rely on Eddie as a potential starter it would make it more difficult for opposition coaches to set up against our otherwise entirely predictable front line. Having chosen to persist with Lacazette, I find it almost impossible to choose between Martinelli and Smith Rowe on the left but on the basis of their Palace performances, I would choose the former. ESR would be a good early option from the bench, especially if Odegaard hasn’t recovered his form.
Thus, I expect the following starting eleven:
Ramsdale
Cedric, White, Gabriel, Tavares
Odegaard, Xhaka, Lokonga
Saka, Lacazette, Martinelli
The Holic Pound
Once again, the Holic Pound has been donated to a Ukrainian cause so I haven’t looked at any bookmaker’s odds. Neither team is banging goals in so I expect a low score. I look forward to a 2-0 victory for the Arsenal but not without scares.
This game is definitely a ‘must win’! If we don’t win this we can almost certainly kiss goodbye to fourth place and start worrying about whether we can find the form to stay in the top six.
Enjoy the game, Holics, wherever you are watching.
The definitive match preview with all predictable and unpredictable (I hope!) angles covered. Mikel had best be doing his pre-match reading here. Cheers Bath and COYRRRG
Bonus points are available to all those who can identify how many of those R’s stand for resilient.
Thanks, Bath, for an excellent and comprehensive preview !
We can only hope to see goals against the Seagulls. Hopefully Dr Arsenal won’t be handing out the customary cures for the opposition’s stuttering strikers.
Any win, any win, any win ……. just win !
Cheers baff, very good pre-match analysis.
Now, get yourself on TV to replace the not-always-so-good pundits!
Excellent pre-match analysis, Bath.
As others say, this is a must-win.
Top quality preview presaging ( we hope ) a top quality performance but results are what matter now. If we can’t win the next two games we will clearly struggle thereafter. I strongly suspect Partey’s subdued performance at Selhurst was down to his injury becoming increasingly apparent during the game . This most durable of La Liga players has been relatively fragile in the Premier League and we will miss him. You will guess how horrendous the suggestion is to me that Xhaka could replace him but we have few options and I think we have to go with the double pivot . Remembering the fixture last year I’d start Pepe and move Saka to left-back where he is still a strong offensive force and he can advance with the double pivot . I’d start Nketiah whose movement might trouble ‘ the lumps ‘ and keep ESR and Laca for the bench.Laca will comeon with twenty five minutes to go at 0-0 and score the goals that realise Bath’s 2-0 scoreline.Villa will down the Totts 2-1 and Everton will take a point from United . This stuff I’m smoking is great !
Excellent preview Bath!
I think your team is what Mikel will go with. But Gabi down the middle in place of Laca and ESR on the left would be a good option as well.
A surprising switch of Saka back to the LB position as TTG suggested may not be entirely unlikely …
Given that the Spuds have a relatively easier run-in this is a must-win match for us to rebuild the confidence before a crucial stretch of games.
Any win will do …
Checks into the odds on Saka providing a trio of assists from left wing crosses. I could be getting carried away with this but I like the scenario.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing although several of us expressed reservations about thinning out the squad so much in January . Ainsley Maitland- Nile’s, given his versatility would be incredibly useful to have around now .Mourinho doesn’t rate him but then he didn’t rate Salah,De Bruyne or Luke Shaw
At least Mourinho got one out of the three correct, TTG.
After 25 months….it’s matchday again!
Yeah it is Ollie 😀
Hope the players are less nervous
than me.
A very fine preview, thanks Bath.
A fine preview Bath of yet another game that I miss due to rearranged music events elsewhere. I agree totally about this being a must win.
TTG has covered the exact point I was going to raise. I was one who very much questioned about how thin our squad was after the transfer window closed. Having let PEA leave, I felt it was imperative to bring in another striker, even if it was only on loan. I will never understand why with so few numbers that we not only let ANN leave, but also Callum Chambers. Both are capable of doing a job. I just hope it doesn’t come back to haunt us.
Score early and I think we dominate the game. The longer it remains nil nil and the more they will just park the bus.
For those going, enjoy. I hope we are all celebrating later.
Keep the faith.
I am not sure if I have ever spent 25 months without going abroad since childhood (holiday house in the Pyrénées meant short incursions into Spain and Andorra often happened).
And since teenage for the UK itself in fact.
As a pre-match diversion, Ray Parlour shows he has still got it — even when wearing 1920s kit — in this promotional video for the Design Museum exhibition on football design that has just opened.
Thanks, Bath! What an excellent comprehensive preview.
I hope the team will follow your performance.
A must win!
COYG
Hapless Harry strikes again, 1-0 Everton
Hapless Harry indeed wears a hapless expression Matt. All Manure fans seems to wear that expression these days though. Here’s one of their fan’s take, from the BBC: “I’ve been supporting United since 1976 and frankly I’ve had enough. We’re making Everton look like a good team rather than a team drowning in the Premier League. United players should hang their heads in shame.”
Yep, plenty of gutted Manure faces at the end there. Wolves and they both lost now this weekend, please please win boys
Xhaka on the left then.
Looks like
Aaron
Cedric, Benjamin, Gab, Xhaka
Sambi, Martin
Saka, ESR, Gabi
Laca
Wouldn’t swear on that though as there are a couple of permutations….
Permutations: Xhaka Saka Laca. Saca Laca Xhaka. Saka Laca Xhaka. Saca Laka Xhaca. I could go on …
Thanks fellas. It was a pleasure.
I was surprised to see Xhaka at LB as I thought that had been shown to be a stop-gap option for late in a game not a starting choice. However, as noted by Matt it could metamorphose into Saka at LWB with Xhaka more centrally as a LCB/holding MFer and Odegaard and ESR free to play as ‘8’s’.
Brighton moved to three in MF adding Bissouma to the pair played against Norwich as expected but Mwepu replaces Lamptey – don’t know anything about him – and Maupay rather than Danny Welbeck drops to the bench.
It really is a must win game, so….
COYG
Greetings gents
A comfortable(ish) win. Manure lost so the day started well.
Great chance for Gabriel from a cracking cross by Saka, spurned.
As the saying goes….damn
Shit, 1-0 down.
They are hacking down our creative players
So poor again. No confidence and now getting kicked to bits.
Nothing working for Lacazette.
Second best to every ball, same as last game. Confidence is shot it seems
What a bastard
3 minutes 40 seconds to check is just nonsense
Fuckity fuck, the wheels have come off
These subs? What fudge coach? Wrong tactics.
I suppose the rather expensive lesson here is that it’s all very well selling the dead wood in January but the bare bones didn’t take many injuries to be revealed. Hindsight and all that.
Fought hard to the end
OM you mean AT the end…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>