The start of the Euros might have obscured the fact that the transfer window opened on 14th June and from now until the end of August, NewsNow will be refreshed continually as transfer stories (most of which are complete rubbish) break and develop. The window closes officially at 11pm on 30th August as Jim White clad in his yellow tie breaks down in tears on live TV and Sky reporters frantically sip hot coffee while shivering in club car parks all over England waiting for managers in their Range Rovers to confirm or deny deals.
In this article I thought it might be interesting to look at what Arsenal might do in this window. I will focus predominantly on incomings although as we will see, the management of finances has never been more important and the consequences (seemingly for all clubs except one) of mismanaging their profit and loss account has never had more potentially vicious consequences.
I won’t go into huge depth about the various rules by which we have to abide. There are those in the GHF fraternity who understand them better than me and I am not fit to touch the hem of their garment, but I’ve just tried to provide a bit of context, so please be gentle with me if my suppositions are wrong.
Profit and Sustainability Rules
PSR rules prohibit all clubs in the Premier League from accumulating losses in excess of £105 million over a three-year period. Not all club spending is captured by the £105 million limit: infrastructure, women’s football, investment in youth and community work costs are all deductible for PSR purposes.
UEFA has helped accelerate the complexity of the situation with changes it has introduced over the past 18 months. Any club competing in European competitions will have to adhere to rules limiting spending on player wages, amortised transfers and agent fees to 70 per cent of overall revenue by 2025-26. The move towards that benchmark began with the limit set at 90 per cent this season and 80 per cent in 2024-25.
Squad Formation Rules
If that isn’t complicated enough, we have the league rules on squad formation.
Per the league’s rules, clubs can name a squad of 25 players but the 25 players cannot contain more than 17 who do not fulfil “homegrown” criteria. So, you need at least 8 homegrown players. “Homegrown” means a player who, irrespective of nationality or age, has been registered with any club in England or Wales for a period, continuous or not, of three entire seasons before his 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which he turns 21).
Players under the age of 21 do not need be included in our 25-player squad, and clubs can field as many under-21s as they wish throughout the campaign.
Players we are (currently) retaining are listed below. *Players marked with an asterisk are homegrown.
Kai Havertz
Gabriel Jesus
Jorginho
Jakub Kiwior
Gabriel Magalhaes
Gabriel Martinelli*
Reiss Nelson*
Eddie Nketiah*
Martin Ødegaard
Thomas Partey
Aaron Ramsdale*
David Raya*
Omar Rekik
Declan Rice*
Bukayo Saka*
William Saliba*
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Emile Smith Rowe*
Nuno Tavares
Kieran Tierney
Jurrien Timber
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Leandro Trossard
Fabio Vieira
Ben White*
Oleksandr Zinchenko
My sense is that at least 7 of these players will be sold (or go on loan) and it may be as many as 10. Thirteen of this list are not home grown. But several may leave . Probably 4 homegrown players could leave this summer. If they do, we must sign 2 homegrown players over 21 to replace them or just carry a smaller squad.
Under 21’s
The following players were on loan all season:
Charlie Patino
Mika Biereth
Brooke Norton- Cuffy
Marquinhos (who I believe is returning permanently to Brazil)
Other notable U21s who may be considered for first team action are:
Amario Cozier-Duberry
Khayon Edwards
Taylor Foran
Jimi Gower
Ayden Heaven
Karl Hein
Jack Henry-Francis
Ismeal Kabia
Myles Lewis-Skelly
Zane Monlouis
Ethan Nwaneri
Michal Rosiak
Charles Sagoe Jr
James Sweet
Reuell Walters (Reuell has apparently refused a new contract and is destined to leave)
In addition, Chido Martin Obi who is not old enough to sign a pro contract in England is likely to leave for Germany.
Transfers – A Murky Pool.
In a long business career where I got heavily involved in film finance, takeover deals and property deals I scarcely ever found myself working on insurance for transfer deals. While I would love to have scuppered a big Manchester United transfer or held up a new Tottenham purchase but I never had the opportunity. I was peripherally involved in John Hollins’ transfer from Chelsea to QPR which he describes in his autobiography. I was aware of a number of complicated machinations affecting Lassana Diarra’s transfer to us from Chelsea and the last deal I had any foreknowledge of was the ill-fated deal which saw Willian move to us from the Bus Stop. A friend who has strong Chelsea connections told me about this deal several months before it actually happened.
Having once sat next to a football agent at a charity breakfast at Claridges, this was really no hardship. He was a repulsive character who dripped arrogance. He was almost a cliche in the way that he talked and his outlook on life. Someone who gave you the impression that the world of football revolved around him and had little to do with players. Those of us old enough to remember football transfers in days of yore when most of the action seemed to take place at motorway service stations or railway stations will suspect that a lot of nefarious dealings took place around transfers with many household names involved. It always seemed singularly unfair just to sanction George Graham for the ‘bung’ he received from Rune Hauge over the transfer of Pal Lydersen when so many other big figures in the game went unpunished for similar offences. Reference the transcript of the notorious legal action between Alan Sugar and Terry Venables for examples of what went on.
Today’s transfers are complex, often protracted affairs and one suspects that brown envelopes are no longer traded at Watford Gap at 11.30 at night. Transfer negotiations are compressed into the windows in the summer and (less frequently) in the winter. The amounts involved are so large that transfer strategy is an incredibly important part of running a modern football club . It is an area that has been conducted in a very different way at Arsenal in recent years
Changing Times at Arsenal
During the post-season break in 2020 Arsenal decided to change their modus operandi on transfers. This coincided with the departure of Raul Sanllehi which seemed to be associated with a review by KSE’s emissary in London, Tim Lewis, now a club director, of the transfer of Nicolas Pepe from Lille a year before. From that moment onwards, Arsenal’s transfer dealings appeared to interested observers to be informed by a much tighter strategy with a transfer committee in place and Josh Kroenke ultimately signing off all transfers. This change also coincided with a willingness to continue to spend big and to recruit younger players with a high ceiling. We saw the recruitment of White, Ramsdale, Tomayisu, Jesus, Zinchenko, Trossard, Jorginho and Kiwior. Last window saw us recruit Havertz, Timber, Raya (on loan) and the mega-deal for Declan (‘we got him half-price‘) Rice . These players have taken us into contention for the title.
So what will happen in the window that has just opened ?
I’ve started with outgoings because they may determine who we end up buying. Those likely to leave:
Highly likely departures
Ramsdale
Partey
Sambi Lokonga
Tavares
Tierney
Patino
Nketiah
Nelson
Biereth
Norton-Cuffy
It is impossible to assign very accurate figures but if everyone on this list did leave we could expect to receive somewhere between £100- £140 million
Possible departures
Jesus (possible fee £25 million)
Zinchenko (possible fee £25 million)
Hein (possible fee £5 million but may go on loan)
Smith Rowe (possible fee £25 million)
Vieira (possible fee £15 million – may go on loan)
Kiwior (possible fee £20 million)
All the fee calculations here and above do not take into account additional clauses and incentive payments .
The clickbait transfer stories try to link almost every player with a move and I am very sceptical that we could oversee (or need to oversee) an exodus like this. I think some of our younger players with no obvious pathway to the first team are likely to leave while players whom we need to upgrade or who need to move for the sake of their careers will move on.
So, I expect to see all of those on the ‘Likely Departures’ list leaving and in addition, we may see Kiwior depart and Vieira going on loan. I desperately hope ESR stays and gets more opportunities. He is home-grown and would ideally have to be replaced by another homegrown player. Why sign, say Conor Gallagher, if you have to let ESR go?
Potential Signings
I have been told that there will be a strong focus on signing breakthrough players between the ages of 16-19 this summer. I don’t have my own scouting network so can’t identify likely recruits but it does seem perverse to me that we are focusing here while seeing Patino, BNC, Walters and Biereth go and failing to retain Martin Obi and possibly Cozier-Duberry. If we want to recruit and retain the best young talent we have to find a way to develop a pathway into the first team. At least, Ethan Nwaneri may well join the first team squad next season.
I think we need to sign players for the following positions:
A goalkeeper (two if Hein leaves or goes out on loan).
This would be a back-up to Raya but we would need a third keeper if Hein moves, even if out on loan. Hein doesn’t appear to be trusted to be the number two keeper despite being the Estonian national keeper. The Athletic has reported that Hein has been persuaded to sign a new contract but will probably go out on loan and assuming he stays, my suggestion would be to try to resign Wojciech Szczesny although he seems destined for Saudi Arabia where he will be first choice and will be handsomely remunerated to play in empty stadia. He would count as homegrown, he knows and loves the club and may have unfinished business. Arteta may even let him have a fag in the showers! He has more top-level experience than Raya. Other possibilities are Kaspar Schmeichel or Fabianski. Any keeper would need to be able to hit the ground running and be competent with their feet. The older generation of keepers are less adept in this regard but are shot- stoppers .
The most rumoured keeper is Bijlow, the Feyenoord keeper. He is a very modern keeper and will really challenge Raya who we will be buying shortly on a permanent basis, but Bijlow has a very worrying injury record. Justin Steele of Brighton is also rumoured to be a target and is homegrown.
A left sided defender (one who ideally can play at left back and centre back).
Kiwior is regularly linked with a move back to Italy. He improved last year, mainly playing at left-back and is a regular for Poland. He is a good passer but may stay as back-up to Gabriel. If Zinchenko leaves, I think we may sign Kadioglu, the very highly-rated left back from Fenerbache. He fits the age profile and is highly mobile. If it were my choice (as if!) I’d keep Tierney who is a fine full back and can play as a centre back in either a three or four. The apparently favoured choice is Hato of Ajax who can play in both left sided positions. He is 18, but already skippering the side and has just signed a new contract. Timber will hopefully be able to play a full part next season possibly starting at left back.
A midfielder (one who can play box to box – ideally an 8). It is not inconceivable we might sign two.
Every indication seems to suggest that Partey is being sold, probably because of his injury record although I sensed a deterioration in his level at the end of the season when he returned. My choice would be Youssuf Fofana at Monaco, a current French international who is likely to be available for £25 million as he has one year on his contract. Douglas Luiz would fit well but appears destined for Juventus and would Villa sell to us? Adam Wharton at Palace would fit very well (and is homegrown) but would cost around £60 million. I really like Sabitzer at Dortmund but he doesn’t fit the age profile. Arteta is keen on Zubimendi at Sociedad but he seems to prefer to stay in Spain.
A wide attacker (ideally one who could also play through the middle).
My choice here would be Xavi Simons at PSG who impressed me enormously playing for PSV a couple of seasons ago. Alternatives are Eze (homegrown), Olise (who is very injury prone and we must leave Palace some players!) , and Bakayoko of PSV who impressed against us in the Champions League.
Would I buy a striker? Given the emergence of Havertz – no, but we’d need to keep Jesus and use Martinelli more through the middle if we want another striking option.
Possible pure striking options are Gimenez at Feyenoord, Solanke at Brighton ( homegrown) and Zirkzee at Bologna. I don’t personally like the idea of Osimhen who looks like Aubameyang Mark 2 or Toney who apparently has not impressed Arteta with his personality. But some sources suggest that if we can buy Osimhen at a reduced price, we would be keen to recruit him as he is keen to play in the Premier League. Hopefully my scepticism is unjustified but I think a marquee signing like Osimhen would possibly produce some disharmony as it would potentially displace Havertz, who is much better upfront than midfield and the Nigerian appears a high-risk signing with a very large ego.
So if we make the sort of signings I suggest, our outlay would not be massively more than our incoming fees. Add an Osimhen and we could be looking at an outgoing of £230-250 million with very high wages as well.
After the clickbait subsides we tend to get very authoritative information from Ornstein, Romano and Charles Watts who have a real inside track at the club. We will watch with keen interest and performances at the Euros may give us insight into where the real value lies and who the emerging stars are. Certainly as a club in a reasonable PSR position with a decent revenue stream next season, Champions League football and the opportunity to raise a considerable sum from outgoing transfers we should be one of the best-placed sides going into the window.
Buckle up it may be an interesting ride!
Thanks TTG, an overview and a half sir.
I am happy to leave the actual names to MA / Edu but I’d like signings in exactly the same areas as you plus a back-up for Ode. I’d cut my losses on Vieira now and much as I will hate it I honestly think it’s better for ESR to go now. A jewel of a player like him should be playing every week. TTG named Conor Gallagher and it made me think that the fact that he is in the England squad (CG that is, not TTG) and ESR isn’t is just plain wrong.
Matt
Gareth tried to have a conversation about the Euros but I pointed out I always go on my fishing holiday in June/ July ….. and I’ve lost my boots ( they’ve actually disintegrated)
I only mentioned Gallagher as an example . I’m not advocating his purchase . I now believe we are after Onana
Fishing will probably be more enjoyable than following our Euro campaign if history is any guide.
I realized Galagher was just an example, but his name made me ponder the relative merits of the two players. I entirely agree with you that we don’t want him.
I have read the Ohana stories before and on his day he is very good I think, but I also heard from Everton fans that he has days when he just phones it in and I did wonder if MA would ever buy a player with questionable commitment.
A comprehensive survey of the transfer landscape, TTG. Bravo. Your likely departure list, I would imagine, is close to Arteta/Edu’s, but I think we will do well to sell half of them in the current market, where PSR casts a long shadow, and very well if we move on two-thirds. My guess is that the funds raised plus what overhead we have under PSR will limit us to a handful of major additions — and Arteta will only buy where he sees it will strengthen the squad.
It looks like a backup keeper to replace Ramsdale, another box-to-box midfielder to replace Partey and a winger to provide relief for Saka are the priorities. Even then, that may prove one more recruit than we can sustainably manage, although there are promising youngsters in ACD and Charlier Sagoe Jr to audition to be Saka’s understudy. I would worry that even if we got all three on the wish list, it would leave us short of bringing in cover for Havertz and/or a Plan B at centre-forward. That might mean Nketiah will stay unless we get a rich offer for him, although it is possible that Arteta might see Nwaneri ending up playing in a Havertz-like position.
Taylor Foran and James Sweet’s contracts end at the end of the month and are not being renewed. They are both on the free transfer/released players list submitted to the PL. The full list is here: https://www.premierleague.com/news/4030596
Thanks TTG – I especially enjoyed the bits about your own connections and experiences in the shenanigans. Trying to predict who we might bring in is an absolute lottery and I also ausoect the departures will be heavily dependent on the PSR rules and having to maintain the correct number of homegrown players in the squad. Biggest example of that coukd well turn out to be Nketiah. He is clearly never going to be first choice but he is homegrown and we were already top scorers in the league last season. With too strikers very rare and extremely expensive Eddie could stay while we spend on other areas.
A well thought out and stimulating piece. If we get our asking prices, I would sell Yierney, Nketiah, Nelson, ESR, Vieira and Partey (though there are rumours that the latter prefers to see out his last year with us rather than going immediately to Saudi for bags of loot). If we don’t get our asking prices then I’d keep every one of them. However I would of course sell Lokonga and Tavares for whatever we can get. I agree that we need better cover for Ødegaard especially if we let ESR go – Vieira just doesn’t cut it.
While I’m happy to rely on Edu/MA*’s judgement, I’d like to add Neto to the front line options – he can spell either winger and also might even be able to cover for Ødegaard. I wouldn’t want Onana – Oh No NO! – if Partey doesn’t leave, we don’t need him and TTG’s observation from Everton fans does fit my impression of him, c.f. Belgium this week. I’d rather have Luis tho’ as observed above, he seems to be heading to Italy. I don’t think we need to add to our defenders with Timber coming back and I don’t think anyone is going to buy KT3 with his new hamstring injury until he can prove his fitness again. We clearly need a backup keeper or two – your suggestions of Steele, Schmeichel or Fabianski fit the bill.
Que sera, sera!
Le Grove has a piece on Pedro Neto who has been linked with us for some time
They show his injury history. It does not make good reading
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4de27a2-d0f9-47c4-95bd-439683250a29_1370x492.png
I think I would pass at the fee quoted. As the wretchedly unlucky KT showed last night players with a tendency to break down don’t often grow out of the problem. KT may be hard to move if his injury is as bad as it looked . I hope he can mend soon but despite liking him, and wishing him well it would be better for his career if he leaves ….and stays fit. I think a return to Celtic beckons .
Two excellent points, TTG @7 with which I cannot disagree. Leopards do not change their spots so Tierney is a cautionary tale for us over Neto. We will get peanuts from Celtic, if anything, for him as they will have to have a whip-round to get near his salary.
Great article, TTG , providing us with lots to think about. As Ned and Bath point out in the drinks, PSR looks to be the greatest concern across the Premiership this season. Having finally shown the rules have teeth – only when confronted with the prospect of an external regulator, mind- clubs will not dare to breach again, surely. I imagine it is this, along with the Euros – which has led to the so-slow-as-to-be-motionless start to the transfer window, which is now almost a week old.
I too favour a left back as cover, a replacement for Partey and cover for Saka in order to create the “minimum viable product” in terms of the team. I don’t see that a team which produced so many goals is in urgent need of more direct goal power. Rather the objective should be to create top level cover for the first half of the season. I saw in another place that there is only 1 midweek free up until new year, given international breaks on which our players will almost all be involved. And that is if we go out of the League Cup in the first round we are due to play. This season will, even more than last, be a war of attrition, with the spoils going to those clubs which can manage the players’ minutes. Man City are, unsurprisingly, the exemplar here. Reducing the minutes for Saliba, Gabriel, Odegaard, Rice and Saka will be key, I think. All of these played above or around 3000 minutes in the Premiership last season. Saliba played every minute of 38 games. Rice played the equivalent of just shy of 36 full games. 3000 minutes equates to 33 and a third full games out of 38. These figures don’t include cups and internationals. Not one C115y player played 3000 minutes. Not even a goalkeeper. The highest outfield minutes went to Rodri and Foden – 2931 and 2857. Then they begin to rapidly drop away, with 4 players – Silva, Haaland, Dias, Akanji – being around 2550. 28 and a third games. Stats from FBref.
Respect to TTG for a very detailed and interesting article. My short reply won’t do the original article justice.
Looking at the list of likely departures I’m not sure 100 to 140 million is realistic given the external caution all clubs are under (apart from one – oh the injustice of being singled out). Would 80 be more realistic given not all of them will be sold? And if not all of them are of interest to other clubs, for what we think they are worth, we would then be dipping into the possible departures pot if there are new players we really want to bring in.
The possible departures pot contains some names I would be reluctant to see go elsewhere. Namely Jesus, Kiwior and ESR.
It might be that the total sales we make are the following if there is any interest in them:
Ramsdale 20m
Sambi 10m
Tavares 5m
Patino 5m
Nelson 10m
Biereth 10m
Jesus 25m
That would give us 85m to add to the 80 odd we have raised by other means for potential transfers. Enough for a back up keeper, a midfielder to challenge Partey and a wide player to back up Saka more than Nelson was ever capable of doing.
Just a thought but if we didn’t sell anyone of consequence because no one was meeting our value and there was no one available to buy for whatever reason what would people think of our chances of top four and cup runs next season? I suppose it would very much depend on injuries which we got reasonably lucky with last season.
I’d be concerned that the depth of quality in the squad wouldn’t be there given the number of games we will be playing.
@10 several good points SP.
On your question about our chances if no sales / no buys I would be fairly optimistic I think as we certainly went close this year. However, I think at least Rammy will move on and so the only must get is a back-up keeper.
Did you mean Eddie instead of Jesus in the list of players to sell? Just wondered as I think most would probably sell Eddie before Jesus.
SP@10: My two cents on your question would be that the answer depends on whether City keeps Bernardo Silva and keeps de Bruyne fit and whether we remain as injury-free as we were last season. Assuming no sanctions against City, they will be the one to beat again. ‘Pool will probably take a season to settle under Slot. ten Hag will need another season for Ratcliffe to sort out the mess that is the Red Mancs’ squad. Emery should be able to keep Villa in the mix for a CL spot but not challenge for top spot, while, in Maresca, Chelsea has finally hired a coach to fit their squad. The neighbours will be the neighbours.
As you and others rightly point out, managing the workload on the players is going to be the key to success next season.
A point well made CER, that squad management to prevent burn out and overplay-induced injury will be critical to any success next season and our purchases must be targeted to facilitate that option without the drop off in quality we have seen in the last season or two when key players have been replaced.
SP, your values strike me as more realistic than TTG’s whose comprehensive piece covered so much ground, including amusingly, his experience of a sleazeball agent, that I forgot to challenge him for his overoptimistic assessment of our potential incoming – he must have forgotten his earlier assessment of Edu’s salesmanship – or is he just setting an impossibly high bar for his end of window assessment?
I wouldn’t sell Jesùs this summer. He’s currently our best alternate for Havertz, Saka, Martinelli and indeed Ødegaard, not to mention potentially, if his fitness drive comes good, an excellent option at ‘centre forward’. Given the schedule, his versatility is invaluable and he’ll certainly get plenty game time.
Long Bloomberg interview with Ratcliffe, which underlines the enormity of the task he has taken on at OT, along with more sympathy for City’s lawsuit against the PL’s related party transaction rules than one would like to see. Less surprisingly, he doesn’t like the idea of a football regulator, either.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-20/jim-ratcliffe-says-manchester-united-wants-to-be-real-madrid
Matt I would prefer to sell Eddie over Jesus but was looking at the more likely interest in the latter from other clubs.
I still think there is a player in Eddie if only he would show it ob the big stage more often.
And on another note how poor was that England display this afternoon. Ben White knows.
Very in depth post from TTG
In my humble opinion, given we had the best defensive record in the league without Timber, I don’t think we need any extra defensive cover.
We’ve got 6 multi purpose players across all positions in Benni,Tomi,Gabi,Willie,Kiwior and Timber, and at a pinch Zinchenko, if he stays.
Only exception is a backup keeper.
I think Edu/Arteta will be focused on defensive midfielder to complement Rice, with Timber and Zinny as cover if needed.
With Jesus getting the surgery cleanup on his knee, he will be back fully fit for new season, and when fit he had a great rapport with Gabi on the left side of attack, and can play anywhere across the front line.
He wouldn’t be on my list of players for sale during summer.
Leo can also play across the front line, and Kai has proved his worth in the forward role he has been playing.
We scored a shedload of goals last season, so I don’t see the need to go mad on an out and out striker, which could fundamentally change the way we play, rather a more adaptable forward with plenty of penalty box goals, but can also create outside the box as well.
So for me, 2 top tier buys at most, with maybe a 3rd buy at a more reasonable price, in a position we are not expecting.
Let’s remember that Edu and Arteta have known who they want for many many months, and I don’t doubt informal talks have already taken place, and possibly even verbal or prenup agreements have been initiated.
We are one of the biggest Clubs in the world, and for the first time in many years are now elevated to a position where along with City and Liverpool, most of very best players in the world who want to play in the EPL, want to play for us.
London is the still the beating heart of England, and we are currently the Kings, why would any top player want to be anywhere else.
I suppose the proof will come with the summer’s pudding but I thought TTG was about right with the 100-140 for the sales. Though the key proviso is it will very difficult to move all of them on…….
To be honest I couldn’t be bothered to stay up late / get up early for the England game but I definitely agree Benny Blanco knows! So does Clive, though if Kiwior leaves then I would buy someone (I have no idea at all if the rumors he wants to go back to Italy are true)
Clive @16, you sum up my opinion far better than I do myself. Couldn’t agree more. I await with interest, which players Edu & Mikel pull from their magic hat.
Clive, many thanks ! You’ve saved me a lot of typing time with that great post.
I’m over here with Bath in the couldn’t-agree-more camp.
Thank you TTG for that ever so comprehensive assessment of our transfer prospects. Mo mention of the imminent arrival of Lamine Yamal being my only disappointment. 😉
Clive@16: Excellent post, but do we need to sign a winger so Saka won’t have to play every minute of every game?
Today Cozier Duberry has decided to seek fresh pastures . Like Walters we never saw him in a first team shirt . I think the upshot of this may be us buying a feeder club in Europe to give us somewhere where up and coming prospects can play . To lose Martin Obi , Walters and ACD is very disappointing but maybe inevitable. But it does make the supposed model of focusing on bright , young talent a little questionable if they don’t play and move on for nothing
Btw Great post Clive . I’m sure Mikel and Edu have a very clear plan
A gutted KT3 has returned to Colney for treatment to his damaged hamstring. According to John Carver, Scotland Assistant Manager, if he returns to Germany he’ll be coming as a supporter!
Good point, TTG @22. There’s no point in luring and developing the world’s best young talent and then seeing them stomp off for nowt, frustrated at the lack of a clear path to first team opportunities at the club. A feeder club where they can compete at a higher competitive level than the under-18’s does seem a logical development.
TTG@22: I have advocated for a B team playing senior football in the lower leagues, as is allowed in Spain, for some while, but a feeder club in one of the European leagues would serve the same purpose.
Also, the youngsters need to be given some games in the cups. And not just on the bench. Minutes on the pitch. A chance to show their worth but also a glimpse for them of a pathway to breaking through.
@26 Ned,
Yes, practically there isn’t much difference between a feeder club and a B team. I prefer the B team model myself as it would say Arsenal on the tin.
And come to think of it, we could leave the B team in the league when we move to the Super League in the future. Though I fear a few not be fully on board with that win-win idea 😉
Olise and ESR
Both prodigiously gifted though only ESR is a full international. Similar age, both very injury prone and both homegrown. Olise is moving to Bayern who are triggering his £60 m release clause . I expect if ESR goes we will get £ 20-25m for him .
TTG@29 – so the lesson is to sell injury prone players as early as possible. That seems to be the only difference as the club has persevered with ESR hoping that he would eventually overcome his problems which he apparently has not.
What did we get for Olise when he left the club versus what we might achieve for ESR ? We certainly did not get the £60 million ?!
Palace had to sell now and we didn’t two years ago when ESR’s value was far higher.
I don’t know how it compares to other elite clubs, but we seem to have a lot of injury-prone players coming up through the ranks. If you read about the U-21s and U-18s and our players on loan, there always seems to be a decent chunk out injured or coming back from injury. Is it just that the level of fitness expected of Academy players now is beyond what young bodies can bear?
Trev@30: We got exactly the same for Olise when he left in 2009 as Chelsea and Man City did when he moved on from them in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Zilch. Reading, which he joined after his one season with Man City Youth, was the first club to get any money for him when Palace handed over £8 million in 2021. Reports say Reading will get a ‘sell-on’ cut of any fee Palace gets for Olise, so they might make a chunk of that back.
It is also worth recalling that Olise was a seven-year-old when he left Arsenal for Chelsea.
In the end Chelsea spent 7 years on Olise’s development, got nothing when he left and then would have paid 60m to get him back. I am not particularly laughing at them (though I am of course) but it’s a funny old game sometimes football or a funny old business in this case.
Teamtalk website report:
“Arsenal are reportedly closing in on the signing of Sporting Lisbon striker Viktor Gyokeres with Mikel Arteta throwing his weight behind a colossal deaL”
Make of it what you will.
Bt8
This article is headed ‘ the Silly season ‘ and the Gyokeres rumours all emanate from one Portuguese source and have not been verified anywhere else . Until one of the ITK journalists picks this up I wouldn’t get too excited . Darwin Nunes got an awful lot of goals in Portugal as did Gonçalo Ramos who went on to PSG and didn’t set the world on fire . We were due to buy Osimhen last week according to some sources so I’d hold fire on our next striker . It’s also an awful lot to spend prior to June 30th . I thought we might sell first
I wonder whether the exceptionally low level of activity is due to an agreement between clubs without PSR issues to punish those that do by restricting money flows until the next PSR period opens.I hope so. The only activity seems to have been between clubs in the latter camp, notably Chelsea, Villa and Everton.
Villa do seem to be paying the Chavs a lot of money for Maatsen. No idea if he is any good but he only just made the Dutch squad as a replacement for an injured player. Am I paranoid enough?
Matt @39, it’s a scam, as explained here by Keenos:
Oh I see, thanks Bath. The Grifters are coming to a league near you soon.
CER@38: Wouldn’t such collusion be illegal under UK competition law? No doubt City’s lawyers are already looking at it. It is not as if they have anything else to do…
bath@40: It is not so much a scam as more of the short-termism that got clubs into their financial predicament in the first place.
One of the basic tenets of life is that any rules created by one set of lawyers and accountants can and will be end run by another set of lawyers and accountants.
Ned@42, yes but I would think football is too small, unimportant and not impacting on any particularly large group of customers to merit a competition enquiry.
The competition to buy Chelsea was intense and at one stage involved Sir JimmRatcliff, if I remember rightly . Todd Boehly won the race and one gets the impression that he thought he had seen wrinkles that nobody else had- hence the long-term contracts amortising the cost of some extremely expensive purchases .
But eighteen months or so on and it looks like Boehly wasn’t as shrewd as he 5hought he was being. This short-termism in financial management is very ill-advised and digs a bigger and bigger hole for our friends at the Bus Stop . Factor in the fact that they have blown the whistle on themselves when discovering ‘ irregularities ‘ during due diligence and it looks to me highly unlikely that Chelsea can qualify for the 25/26 Champions League – and with their wage bill that’s very bad news ( for them , frankly I’m delighted). When KSE bought Arsenal they took their time to make major changes and we thought they were very quiescent ( I certainly did) but in retrospect they have built a very coherent strategy . Chelsea seem to have a strategy of selling all their Academy stars and replacing them with expensive purchases of young players on long-term contracts . Tgat doesn’t look clever to me .
Incidentally my throwaway line about Conor Gallagher may not be so throwaway . I hear we have enquired about him to Chelsea .
If Gallagher arrives then it will obviously be all TTG’s fault if it goes wrong.
Of course if it goes well then I reserve my time-honoured rights as a football
supporter to claim that I always said he was a top, top player.
Manure supporters seem to think Ratcliffe will somehow make everything alright again, personally I am doubtful he is quite the shining knight they imagine.
To be fair I’m can’t think of any PL club owners (including our own) that I am
not doubtful about, except of course 115ty and Riyadh Rovers – I am quite sure
about them.
On thé other hand can Boehly possibly be as stupid as he seems?
I have never met the guy obviously and I assume he has been good
at some pointless thing to accumulate a large sum of money but as TTG points
out he behaves like a short-term scam artist who will do a bunk and
leave an absolute shit show behind him. It’s odd. The cunning hand
of the snollygoster or is, as usual, Occam correct?
On another note, I suppose I should set up the half ton with commiserations to
KT and Kiwior. Hasn’t been a good couple of days for our left backs. Perhaps
Zin and the boys will buck the trend for our left back fraternity.
Sneaks in just to break up Matt’s roll. Matt, you must have found some good sake on the other side of the international date line.
Well snuck in for the half-ton, bt8.
I’m reliably informed it’s the season to be silly bt8 🙂
a ripple of applause for the half ton though….
I forgot the congrats to Kai for qualifying, though it seems that Xhaka bloke stole the plaudits again.
Well in goalhanger Bt8 after a breathtaking run from Matt !
Matt@48.
Wealth and intelligence can be strange bedfellows as illustrated by one or two wellknown figures in public life . Actually I don’t think in Boehly’s case it’s intelligence he lacks, it’s judgment . He imagines he sees a better way to do things . His record at the Chavs so far suggests his vision may be impaired and there may be a dash of arrogance . I think the Mudryk transfer was a gesture to his public that was poorly thought out
I think you have nailed Boehly @53, TTG.
On the whole, Boehly’s record as a financier and investor across a broad range of industries is pretty good. His Chelsea performance appears to be a huge anomaly. He has a reputation for being hands-on from the get-go at any enterprise in which he gets involved, then stepping back once he thinks he has got the business repositioned. Taking the role of sporting director at the Bus Stop would fit that. But it’s scarcely the job on which to cut your teeth in the football industry. More than a lack of judgment, I would hazard that he just didn’t have a grasp of how the football business works, especially the bits involving the players and the team, rather than the financial side. He has a lot of experience in media, entertainment and Hollywood, but that is of scant use when it comes to dealing with the proverbial wet Wednesdays in Stoke.
Summed up very well Ned.
‘ I understand baseball, can soccer be a lot different ? ‘ . That mindset leads to major problems which he is suffering now . It’s a good thing he has a lot of money ( or Clearlake Capital has) because he’s wasted most of it so far at the Bus Stop 😝😝
I have been led to believe that they are bankrolled by the Saudis.
bath@57: Don’t be led too far. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund (PIF) has allocated funds to Clearlake’s various private equity funds, as have many sovereign wealth funds and superrich individuals. However, no investor can account for more than 5% of a fund’s assets under management, and 1% or less is a more typical commitment. In the ‘fit and proper owner’ assessment of BlueCo, the consortium that is Chelsea’s ultimate owner (60% owned by Clearlake and 40% by Broehly and other investors), it was testified that there was no Saudi investment in the deal. Had there been, I assume, it would have scuppered the acquisition, given the PIF’s stake in the Barcodes. Clearlake’s internal credit platform, White Star Asset Management, probably was the source of the funds. That also doubtless has Saudi assets under management, but, again, an influence would be indirect.
Both Clearlake and Broehly have good relationships with Saudi money (the PIF has also invested directly in one of Broehly’s hotel projects), and there are some riyals in the cigar box in which Clearlake keeps its petty cash. Yet that falls short, in my book, of bankrolling the club.
The bigger potential conflict of interest would be if the PIF uses its ownership of its four clubs in the Saudi Premier League to buy Chelsea players at rich prices to alleviate PSR pressures at the Bus Stop. Watch the transfer window closely, and try not to get sand in your eyes.
That should be Saudi Pro, not Premier League, of course. Freudian slip; getting ahead of myself for the day when Riyadh buys the PL outright…
Re: Ned @58. Quite some excellent roiling of the riyals in the cigar box. Corporate money shuffling being a desperately dirty business, and especially it seems where the Saudi royal family is involved but of course I wouldn’t want to cast aspersions, sandy or otherwise.
When you’re a murderous kleptocrat what’s a little fraud amongst friends
Ned @58 – an extra spoon of corn flakes for the monks is in order. Excellent work, as usual !
I appreciate that not all Holics will have England’s best interests at heart but I think it is a remarkable achievement to take a group of possibly the most talented players we have ever had and to oversee them playing like a mediocre pub team
I had it in my mind that Southgate was born in Croydon , a place I find terminally boring having lived there once , but he is from Watford . It would be difficult to decide which is the more tedious place ( sorry if I’m offending anyone from Watford) and maybe this has affected Gareth’s approach to football . Certainly he and Ben White’s friend Steve Holland don’t seem to be able to inject any speed or tempo into our football . The last two games represent three hours of my life I can never recover but they seem like three days
Blogs on Kane today: “Maybe Ben White was right’, is possibly one of the things they were thinking, but you must have questions when you watch Kane drop another 2/10 performance and you don’t get a chance.”
Is there a similar Kane-sized reason why Bayern didn’t win the German title for the first time in a decade?
We are so used to watching elite club football, in which the players are not only technically gifted but have also spent tens of thousands of minutes together practising intricate moves and absorbing a playing style and philosophy, that international football inevitably looks disjointed in comparison. That said, this England side looks more ponderous and incohesive than most. It also looks like a side in transition that hasn’t yet fully worked out its tactics or the right balance of players. However, tournament football is all about the result, not the performance. Fair play, England has topped its group, however, unconvincingly, but from here on in it is win or go home. No excuses and no place to hide.
There is an interesting mind exercise to be done: go around every club that has supplied a player to this England squad — Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bayern Munich, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, Crystal Palace, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle Utd, Real Madrid and West Ham — and ask yourself, if they could swap their manager for Southgate tomorrow, would they do it? I thought not.
Can you imagine Arteta’s reaction to what was happening last night ?
The Slovenian back line moving up the pitch with impunity as Kane was standing next to Geuhi in ours. No movement on the pitch resulting in no passing options – no left wing and Walker making Saka come towards him to collect five yard passes with a full back up his arse waiting to kick him as soon as he touched the ball.
Foden and Bellingham getting in each other’s way and repeatedly giving the ball away with sloppy passes.
Pickford pointing at his own head while screaming at defenders who were constantly pressed due to the compactness of Slovenia allowed by Kane (see above)
So Southgate finally twigged that the team was completely unbalanced. His solution was to bring on Anthony Gordon at left wing after 88 minutes and 50 seconds.
Nuff said.
Ben White knows.
Removing the plodding Kane and bringing on the speedy Watkins in his place could go a distance toward opening the shut vent that Southgate has confronted. Take off Harry and breathe in a gust of fresh air, why doncha?
TTG @63
Look on the bright side, at least you didn’t get up at 4:30AM to watch the torture that was the last England game. I am with Ben White from now on, the highlights later will be fine.
That’s a very wise plan, Matt @69. Highlights????? You’re optimistic. However on current form, you can be confident that their next match won’t take up more than a couple of minutes of your morning.
What do you do if
You want to make a cheeky little run
(Sans cba)
To the magic 3/4 ton
Or, even more ambitiously and quite
In the tradition of the drinks
(Still sans CBA)
.
..
…
A more bold run directly to the full ton
Would the man from Donegal have settled for 3/4 ton
A question to be pondered
Silly season you say ttg?
Single furrow if needs must
No tumbleweeds here
Tumbleflowers only it being the blooming season
Blogging technology seems to admit it
And a dash of stream of consciousness
Hardly ever hurt anyone
Single furrow or lurker participation
Both modalities have their upsides
Did I say Ronaldo is a prick
Well somebody was bound to get hurt eventually
Almost time to feed and walk the dogs so
Lurker participation is here in some
Canine form
Or modality
Ronaldo is what he is
A preening and entitled prick
That’s a non lurker lurker assist by CER with thanks
And CBA too
102 refers to 101 not to 100. Big difference.
A spectacular run bt8, an early morning drink on the bar for you sir.
Unless of course you brew your own?
An honorary moo to that.
Our cursed left back thing continued as Zin followed Kiwior and KT out the tournament
though this time it was with the highest non-qualifying 3rd position points total (a noun phrase that just rolls off the tongue) in the history of civilization.
Apparently 8 gooners march on to the knockout phase. Plus Xhaka and Malen to represent the once of this parish club – though does Malen count I wonder…..
I think the Swiss have a fair shot at beating Italy and I am looking forward to France vs Belgium. Or Saliba! Vs Leo as I see it.
An extraordinary ton, bt8, albeit garnering a yellow card. A fine memorial to cba who might have interspersed the stream of consciousness with some musical interludes – some good, some not to my taste but probably not bad.
Here’s one that I associate with cba:
Sorry but after studying the replays for nearly 12 hours I have some bad news for bt8.
His “ton” @100 will be asterisked in the records and disallowed as he provided his own assist.
There is also a new rule in operation during the Euros and strangely in keeping with England’s performances the numbers on the 30 or so passes leading to the assist should have been going backwards.
Sorry (not at all ) to have spoilt the celebrations.
Bath @107 – indeedy 🤣🤣