GHF Contests
Jul 31st, 2023 by goonerholicsforever
Predictathon 2024-25
Chopped-down Forest props up players
By North Bank Ned and TTG
Lonestar returns to the top of the leaderboard after Match Week 11, and Dr F. Jnr moves back into second as Forest’s defeat modestly reverses several weeks of deteriorating scores for most players.
Last week’s leader, Potsticker, slips to sixth behind GSD, your correspondent and Scruz. A surging C100, up five places, and bt8 complete an octet that is beating the Crowd.
Uply slides below the salt — and BtM, Sancho Panza and Boff — to find himself just a place ahead of Trev. PredictaVAR is again on shirt-pull watch.
Pangloss hauled himself another three places clear of the relegation zone to which TTG returns, but Dr F escapes. Ollie returns the wooden spoon to OM.
The Red Mancs and now Palace occupy the small part of the naughty step left open by Nuno’s numpties.
Your Match Week 11 leaderboard:
Potsticker the least bruised
By North Bank Ned and TTG
Yet another week of worsening scores all around as Forest continues to defy logic, gravity and expectations.
Nuno Espírito Santo’s team of overperformers is costing Predictathon players an average of more than 200 points each. This week, it added anywhere between 88 (Lonestar) and 120 (Ollie and Sancho Panza) points to scores. Brutal.
21st Century Gooner and Bath came out of Match Week 10 the least bruised and Pangloss the most.
When the dust settled, a new name graced the top of the leaderboard, with Potsticker edging to the font.
It is tight: four points separate the new leader from last week’s leader, Lonestar, and Match Week 5’s leader, Dr F. Jnr. They are level on points, with the ascendant GSD just ten behind.
Your correspondent, Scruz and Uply complete the septet beating the Crowd.
OM’s Italian sojourn lifted him close to the escape hatch from the relegation zone, only to find TTG standing on it. They are level on points, but TTG has the tiebreakers in his favour. There is growing daylight between those four and CER.
Congratulations again to our tartan trio of Tin Tack award winners, Bath, BtM and Steveyhyperdee, for correctly predicting EtH’s demise.
Your latest leader board and a bonus form guide:
All hat, no cattle
By North Bank Ned and TTG
Match Week 9 saw no player improve their score as Brentford, of all teams, wreaked the most havoc this week, although Forest, the Red Mancs and the Barcodes won’t be getting any thank-you notes from our prognosticators. It was all a question of who did the least worse.
That was Lonestar, who ended the week at the front of the pack, just ahead of Potsticker, as Scruz, your correspondent and Dr. F Jnr slid back somewhat unceremoniously, recording three of the five biggest points gains of the week.
Uply found himself elevated four places to move into sixth, a smidgen ahead of a tight pack of GSD, bt8 and C100, with Boff advancing two places to round out the set ahead of the Crowd.
Pangloss resumed his escape from his Match Week 6 sojourn in the relegation zone, moving up two places to 14th by limiting his points increase to 32, the same as BtM and Uply. Only Lonestar (+10) and Potsticker (+22) did better.
At the other end of the table, TTG moved out of the relegation zone to be replaced by Dr. F, largely thanks to West Ham’s win, which also kept CER a place ahead of them both.
Your Match Week 9 leaderboard:
A week to forget
By North Bank Ned and TTG
It was a bad week at the office for GHF Predictathon players, too. Only 21st Century Gooner managed to improve his score. For everyone else, the interlull rust hung heavy.
Nonetheless, Scruz managed to extend his lead a tad at the top and Dr F. Jnr moved into second place, nudging your correspondent into third and Potsticker into fourth.
Lonestar, who is now level on points with Potsticker, advanced to fifth at the expense of C100, who dropped to sixth, displacing GSD. Dino tumbled to ninth, level on points with Uply, as bt8 nipped ahead of them both.
Bath moved up four places to go level on points with BtM, and 21CG was up three, level on points with SteveyHyperDee, leaving Trev and Pangloss separating the two pairs.
All six have put some daylight between themselves and the relegation zone, where Osaka Matt handed off the wooden spoon to Ollie.
Forest is causing the most havoc to predictions by far; it is adding at least 100 points to the scores of 13 players. Brighton, Man U and Palace aren’t being very helpful, either.
Your Match Week 8 leaderboard:
Seven-up Scruz
By North Bank Ned and TTG
One-fifth of the season is almost gone. Match Week 7 brought a reversal in fortunes for most players, some worse than others. Brighton’s win and the Red Mancs draw generally pumped up scores more than the defeats of Fulham and Ipswich brought them down.
Scruz held his lead, despite an unexpected and doubtless premature surge from your correspondent, who is as surprised as anyone to find himself rising four places to second.
A formidable trio of Potsticker, C100 and Dr F Jnr are in hot pursuit. They are neck and neck, just four points in arrears, with Dino a further four behind them. Lonestar and Sancho Panza round out the elite octet beating the Crowd.
Pangloss showed a glimpse of his title-winning form of old. He and bt8 were the only players to improve their scores this week, with Fulham and Bournemouth’s defeats and West Ham’s win rallying to their cause. As a result, Pangloss advanced five places to 16th, level on points with Steveyhyperdee, and bt8 four places to 13th, drawing level with Boff.
No players’ scores suffered more damage from Brighton’s win than BtM and TTG, with the latter slipping back into the relegation zone, joining the O Dears, Ollie and OM.
The Red Mancs and Forest continue to be the under- and over-performers piling the points on predictions. Your Match Week 7 leaderboard:
Scruz and the power of six
By North Bank Ned and TTG
Quite a shake-up to the leaderboard in Match Week 6, with a few players making some big moves and causing chaos in the rankings.
Scruz shot to the front of the pack ahead of Dr F. Jnr. Then came Potsticker, the ascendant Sancho Panza, and C100, all level on points but ranked in that order once the tiebreakers were calculated.
GSD did enough to hold off Lonestar’s surge of five places, with BtM rising six in his wake. Lonestar was the more impressive for his Wolves prediction currently being the most off-base single prediction made by any player.
Crystal Palace did bt8 few favours, costing him 12 places. TTG soared from the cellar, leaving the wooden spoon for OM, but Pangloss was dragged down into the relegation zone by the Red Mancs, who, along with Forest, were the week’s red rags.
Your Match Week 6 leaderboard:
Two at the Top
By North Bank Ned & TTG
We have two frontrunners level on points for the first time after Match Week 5. Potsticker closed in on Dr F Jnr, who remains ahead only by dint of the tiebreakers.
BtM is the mover of the week, shaving 114 points off his score, two more than Steveyhyperdee, keeping it all in the family. Good weeks, too, for Scruz, who advances seven places to fourth, and TTG, who now look less adrift of everyone else than he did a week ago.
bt8, in third, leads the first chasing pack comprising Scruz, C100, The Crowd, GSD, your correspondent and Boff. Sancho Panza, Uply, Trev, Lonestar and Steveyhyperdee are chasing the chasing group.
A curiously static Pangloss lets ten others go past him this week, no doubt a cunning plan, but OM slips into the relegation zone as BtM soars six places.
Forest remains the seagull pecking at the discarded crisp packet of prognostication.
Your Match Week 5 leaderboard and the first form guide of the season:
Four-ward we go
By North Bank Ned & TTG
Big improvements all around in Match Week 4, none more so than by Ollie, who cut 170 points off his score to advance off the bottom of the table. bt8 and Boff also had uplifting weeks, both shedding 150+ points.
Everyone bar Ollie and TTG are now below the 500 mark. Four weeks in, and the pack is starting to evolve a shape. Yet, with Nottingham Forest still on for an Invincibles season, you know there is still a lot of change to come.
At the top, Dr F. Jnr held his lead, making for a week of double celebration in Boston with Faustus senior moving out of the relegation zone.
Potsticker slipped into second, shading the frontrunner’s lead to 10 points and pushing C100 down to fourth, level on points with bt8, but a place lower by dint of the tiebreakers.
Only that elite quartet is beating the Crowd.
Pangloss made a big move from 12th to sixth. He is two points ahead of GSD, who rose from tenth to seventh. Boff and Trev lead the next cluster in pursuit.
Forest and the neighbours are on the naughty step this week, the former for overperforming, the latter for underperforming. I wonder why that would be.
To celebrate North London being both red and black, as any good anarcho-syndicalist will tell you, here is your Match Week 4 leaderboard:
Youth to the fore in a swirl of change
By North Bank Ned & TTG
Every player’s score worsened in Match Week 3. By dint of the smallest reverse, Dr F. Jnr regains the lead, followed by C100, who shrugs off any suggestion of altitude sickness to hold second.
Potsticker pops back up to regain the third spot he held in Match Week 1, nudging Sancho Panza down a place from last week. Lonestar drops from frontrunning to fifth, ahead of Steady Eddies Scruz and Trev.
Your correspondent and Dino ease off the pace — tactical moves, we assure you — to round out the top ten. Meanwhile, the defending champion moved up seven places to the middle of the pack.
OM moves out of the relegation zone as Dr F. joins TTG and Ollie.
Brentford’s bright start is the most pernicious for players’ prognostications. Brighton, Forest and the Red Mancs are the other really bad boys.
Your Match Week 3 leaderboard:
Two Down, But Not Yet Settled Down
By North Bank Ned and TTG
With Match Week 2 done and dusted, the Predictathon pack is still sorting itself out after last week’s start. Everyone lowered their scores significantly, and everyone has broken under 600.
Lonestar, who reduced his total points by more than anyone else — a spectacular 312 — has now taken up the frontrunning, pursued by Countryman and Sancho Panza. All three are now sub-400. Dino is hard on their heels in fourth on 402.
There is a smidgin of daylight between the top four and a second group, comprising your correspondent, Scruz, Trev, last week’s leader, Dr F. Jnr, and bt8, all within a narrow band of six points.
Below are a lot of wise old heads who know the race is not won or lost in the first two weeks, including BtM, who racked up the second-best improvement in points this week, 274, to move clear of the relegation places.
The sharp-eyed among you may notice the appearance of a new player, Boff, who we welcome to our ranks. His entry and Willow donation were submitted in time but slipped through the administrative cracks. Our fault, not his.
Your leaderboard for Match Week 2 is below, and Match Week 1’s has been updated to include Boff.
And We Are Off!
By North Bank Ned and TTG
The entries are in. The lists are closed. The starting gun has fired.
We have a record number of players this season. We welcome Lonestar Gooner and welcome back everyone who played last year. The artist formerly known as Poosker has morphed into Steveyhyperdee.
The consensus among ‘holics is that it will be a battle between ourselves and the Blue Mancs for the top spot. Only two players forecast lower than second for City, suggesting few see a substantive points deduction in prospect.
The Scousers are considered a shoo-in for third, with the Red Mancs, Villa, the Barcodes, the Neighbours and the squander-bugs at the Bus Stop scrapping it out for the various remaining European slots.
At the other end of the table, it is expected to be a dog-fight between Notts Forest and the newly promoted trio of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton to avoid the drop. What goes up must come down and all that!
West Ham and Wolves have the broadest range of predictions, seventh to seventeenth and ninth to seventeenth, respectively. There is also much disagreement over where Everton and Chelsea will end up — although probably less over where they should end up.
Steve Cooper is the favourite for the tin-tack, ourselves for the FA Cup and City or Liverpool to win the League Cup.
Best of all, it looks like we have raised more money for Willow than last season—many thanks to everyone for their generosity.
The first leaderboard of the season is below — not that it means much at this point. We would have run only the first 1,100 metres if this were an actual marathon.
Predictathon 2024-25
Enjoy the new season playing the Goonerholicsforever Prediction Contest, in aid of the Willow Foundation!
Can you harness your inner Mystic Meg and out-predict defending champion Pangloss in foreseeing the final Premier League table for the 2024-25 season?
Will you be more clairvoyant than CER and GSD were last season in predicting the FA Cup winner? Or TTG and Uply when it comes to the League Cup?
What’s your bet on the first manager to get the tin tack this season? Have you got a better inside track or insight than Dr F. Jnr?
You can only find out by entering the 2024-25 edition of the GHF Predictathon.
Again, the contest’s purpose is twofold. First, to enhance the enjoyment of the upcoming season by providing a degree of light-hearted competitive rivalry as the season progresses. Second, to support Bob Wilson’s Willow Foundation with another generous collective donation.
The rules of the game are straightforward:
1. The object of the contest is to predict the final 2024-25 Premier League table.
2. The winner will be the player whose predictions are closest to the table at the end of Matchweek 38.
3. This will be determined by a points score using the Difference Squared system. The lowest total score wins (see below for how the scoring works). The reward for winning is a full year’s bragging rights as the bar’s top know-it-all.
4. We shall post weekly updates and a leaderboard here in the Contests tab throughout the season so players can follow their progress. However, the final table at the end of the season determines the contest’s winner, just like the PL itself.
5. If more than one player gets the same score, the tiebreaker will be the most correct predictions. The second tiebreaker will be the most predictions out by one place, then two, and so on.
6. Download the entry blank above. Email your completed entry form to ghfpredict@yahoo.com. We must receive your completed entry no later than one hour before the new season kicks off, i.e., by 1900 UK time on Friday, August 16. No changes to entries or new players are permitted after that deadline.
7. To participate in the contest, contestants are honour-bound to donate to the Willow Foundation (link here) at least £25. This covers entry into the League Positions contest and the three bonus predictions (first manager to get the tin tack, and the winners of the two domestic cups). You can donate more to Willow — we encourage you to do so — but it will not guarantee a higher placing!
8. TTG will confirm with Willow that players are in good standing by the end of Match Week 1. Players who have not donated by then will have 100 points added to Match Week 2, with a further 100 points added for every week of delinquency. If players have not donated their entry fee to Willow by the end of Match Week 4, they will be removed from the competition.
9. In the event of any disputes, TTG’s decision will be final (right or wrong!).
Scoring System
This game will use Difference Squared scoring. This is how it works:
Players’ predictions for each club are awarded points equal to the square of the difference between the club’s predicted and actual place. For example, if a team were predicted to be in sixth place and ended up fourth, the points scored would be 4, i.e., the difference between sixth and fourth is two places, and two times two is four; if a team was predicted to be in fifth place and ended up 15th, the points scored would be 100, i.e., the difference between fifth and 15th is ten places, and ten squared is 100. The worse a prediction, the more the system, by design, penalises it.
Each week, each player’s 20 club scores are then summed. The “winner” of the week is the player with the lowest total that week, but the player with the lowest total relative to the final league table is the winner of the whole contest.
It was a lot of fun to play throughout last season, even though Pangloss strode through to the win nearly post to finish line…that can’t happen again…can it?
Good luck!
TTG & North Bank Ned
