Saturday 3pm.

An iconic appointment in the week. A once immovable point in the calendar of British football fans that facilitated weekly father and son bonding, the release of pent-up tensions from the daily grind and fostered a tribal sense of belonging. Sadly, that date in the diary is now a rarity due to the financial power of global media over the Premier League, not to mention that body’s greed for ever more revenue. Sic transit gloria mundi!

Yet here we are! A too rare but very welcome appointment in Arsenal’s modern calendar.

Our visitors, Nottingham Forest, have a chequered history, distant success at the pinnacle of European football standing like a twin-peaked rock surrounded by a vast desert of mediocrity. Their recent form under Nuno Espirito Santo, bankrolled by Evangelos Marinakis took them briefly into the top four and stimulated memories of glory days and dreams of a return to European competition.

Nottingham Forest F.C. was founded in 1865 in the Clinton Arms by a group of shinty players encouraged by one J.S. Scrimshaw to play Association Football instead (wise man). The group purchased twelve tasselled caps in ‘Garibaldi Red’ thus establishing the club colours. The soubriquet Forest may derive from their original home the Forest Racecourse from which they moved to their current home, the City Ground, in 1898. Of interest to readers from the across the pond, the very next year, 1899, Forest, still a multisport club, were crowned British baseball champions. Since the relegation of Notts County from the Football League, Forest now have the distinction of being the oldest remaining club in the League – despite Stoke City’s characteristically spurious claims – which they entered in 1892 after being rejected on its formation in 1888.

It is, of course, impossible to write of Forest without mentioning Brian Clough who along with sidekick Peter Taylor delivered their most successful era in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s during which they won their only League title, two European Cups (!), one European Super Cup and two League Cups. Before his retirement, Clough’s Forest won two further League Cups in 1988-89 and 1989-90 and reached the FA Cup Final in 1990-91 and another League Cup Final in 1991-92. Their only other trophies are FA Cup wins in 1897-8 and 1958-9.

Clough was an extraordinary coach who could make average players good and good players great but was so forthright in his opinions that the FA Grandees were too timorous to appoint him as England coach, an appointment that would probably have ended all those ‘years of hurt’ long before that awful song was written. Before his Forest spell, Clough also led Derby County to their only First Division title in their history. Clough’s ability to sign and motivate talented players overlooked or rejected by big clubs was second to none and his trophy haul with two provincial clubs with otherwise modest histories demonstrates not only his skill as a coach but also proves that a great coach can have a huge influence on a club’s fortunes. His 44 day tenure in charge of Leeds United is legendary and was the inspiration for the book and film entitled ’The Damned United’. Well worth reading and/or watching if you haven’t already done so.

It is widely believed that in 1886, Forest was instrumental in determining that red would be the Arsenal’s predominant colour by donating shirts to the newly formed Woolwich club. This tale may have recently been debunked with the discovery of newspaper clippings suggesting rather that Woolwich Arsenal’s adoption of red shirts was encouraged by two of the club’s founding members, Fred Beardsley and Morris Bates. Both were former Forest players and may have kept their Forest shirts and encouraged their new teammates to purchase red shirts from a gents’ outfitters in Woolwich. Interestingly, in 1965, the Arsenal board clearly believed the original tale and returned the favour of a gift of red shirts for Forests’s centenary celebration match against Valencia.

Nonetheless, in the early years of organised Association Football, Forest appear to have been zealous advocates of the new game helping not only Arsenal but also Liverpool and Brighton & Hove Albion to establish themselves and donating kits to Everton where the shirt colour clearly didn’t have lasting impact!

Forest’s most recent 23 year exile from the Premier League ended in 2022 after a 2017 takeover and several seasons of heavy investment by Evangelos Marinakis. The Greek shipping magnate also owns Olympiacos and Portuguese side Rio Ave (I haven’t heard of them either!) and is apparently in talks currently to buy Brazilian club Vasco da Gama to add a fourth club to his portfolio.

The Arsenal has an excellent record against Forest, playing 105 times since 1904, with 54 wins, 22 draws and 29 defeats. Since the Premier League’s inception, we have played 14 games winning 9 and drawing 3 with an aggregate of 22 goals for and 10 against. During Forest’s recent absence from the Premier League we met in four cup ties between 2016 and 2022 with the Arsenal winning the two League Cup ties and Forest winning the two FA Cup ties. Since their return to the Premier League we have have won three of our four matches, winning 5-0 at home in October 2022 but losing 0-1 during our slump in May 2023, while we won both home and away games 2-1 last season.  Encouragingly, Forest have failed to win in their last 13 visits to Arsenal in all competitions, losing nine.

Espirito Santo’s Forest eschew the current fashion for a high press, favouring instead a mid block and congestion of the centre of the pitch. Nor do they fetishise playing out from the back as most teams seem to do these days. A long ball to Chris Wood is a potent weapon on regaining possession but more frequently it is a pass into space for one of their speedy wingers to run onto, generally Elanga and Hudson-Odoi. Forest have ditched former Arsenal back-up goalkeeper Matt Turner, now on loan to Palace, and the Belgian international Sels has emerged as their first choice glove butler; Sels’ score on Fantasy Football is a measure of his form. They tend to play four at the back and their central defence is solid and miserly with much admired Brazilian Murillo partnered by Serbian stopper Milenkovic flanked by the talented Aina and Moreno. This season Forest have conceded only 10 goals in 11 games, 2 fewer than the Arsenal and are bettered only by Liverpool. Morgan Gibbs-White is the creative force in midfield supported by ball-winners Yates and the tricky Argentinian Dominguez. Up front, Kiwi Chris Wood is as traditional a British centre forward as they come: a modicum of finesse but mainly raw power and aggression; he is their biggest, though not their only, goal threat. The bench offers multiple options in the form of Williams, Boly, Morato, Ward-Prowse, Sosa, Awoniyi, Silva and the promising Elliot Anderson. Espirito Santo’s team are content to concede the bulk of possession, lure the opposition into traps, regain the ball then spring forward through Gibbs-White and the wingers. Forest are certainly no pushovers this season as their coach now has them fully drilled into his system and as a result they are organised and resolute..

Before their recent 1-3 home defeat by the ‘codes, Forest had reached the dizzy height of third place but, coming into this game, they sit level on 19 points with fourth-placed Arsenal though one place behind in fifth due to our superior goal difference of 6 to their 5. Hopefully that home defeat has burst their bubble but I expect we’re in for a potentially frustrating afternoon. I anticipate a tight game and a tight scoreline. An early Arsenal goal would be very useful.

Once again, unexpected injuries dog our preparation. No sooner had we digested the news that Ben White has been playing through pain and needed a minor knee operation that will keep him out for a total of eight weeks (two down, six to go) than we received the unwelcome news that Leo Trossard had been forced off in the first half of Belgium’s game against Israel last Sunday and is rumoured to have a hamstring strain. Hopefully, either Calafiori or Tomiyashu, or even both, are now fit and either can take the left back slot allowing Timber (who was an unused sub for the Netherlands on Tuesday) to move to right back, otherwise we may have to rely on Zinchenko (who played 70 minutes and scored against Albania on Tuesday) or even Kiwior (who had a decent 90 minutes against Scotland on Monday). The centre backs are shoo-ins (Saliba played 90 minutes for France in their win over Italy on Sunday and Gabriel played 90 minutes for Brazil in the early hours of Wednesday GMT). Rice played against Chelsea with the aid of pain killing injections and was clearly less than 100%. Hopefully, a fortnight of rehabilitation will have eased that problem and will spare him more of that treacherous medication. Otherwise, I would spare him from this game. In his stead, I would start Merino who looked to be bedding into our system before the Interlull. Partey has looked imperious in recent games and, again hopefully, Ødegaard will be further restored to robust health by two more weeks of intensive rehabilitation. Up front, I hope that Saka has recovered from the knock sustained against Chelsea that forced withdrawal from the England squad, otherwise we may see Jesùs or the to date unconvincing Sterling on the right. In the likely absence of Trossard, the other forwards are a no-brainer. Havertz is in great form, albeit not scoring barrowloads (and played the last 30 minutes against Hungary on Tuesday) and Martinelli (who played the last 30 minutes for Brazil against Uruguay on Wednesday morning) has just opened his goals account again. I’d give Jesùs and Sterling an opportunity to change the game from the bench if necessary. Hence the team I expect to start is:

Raya

Timber Saliba Gabriel Calafiori

Ødegaard Partey Merino

Saka Havertz Martinelli

The bookies make Arsenal firm favourites offering odds of 3/1 on, with a draw at 4/1 and a Forest win at 9/1. If you’re a betting man, a wager on an exact score might be more appealing with 1-0 at 6/1, 2-1 at 17/2 and perhaps most tastily 3-1 at 12/1. The rather unpalatable 0-0 and 1-1 are a surprisingly generous 10/1 and 9/1 respectively.

I’m delighted to have bagged three tickets in the fickle ticket ballot and will optimistically amble with my daughter and BtM along our traditional route from my pre-match lunch venue of nearly 30 years, down Stroud Green Road and St Thomas’ Road past the old North Bank and across the bridge to the New Home of Football hoping that Forest are neither as organised nor as resilient as the data suggest and that we have rediscovered our incisive attack with the return of our mercurial captain.

Enjoy the game, Holics. If you too are going, wrap up well. It’s going to be cold, wet and windy. I hope the team can warm us up!

COYG!

Tags: Match Preview